Den Bosch vs Dordrecht Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Den Bosch
Oct 03, 2026 - 18:00
2.49 1.49
Dordrecht
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Den Bosch opened at -0.25 against Dordrecht in the Eerste Divisie. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.96
Den Bosch -0.96

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Den Bosch -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.71
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.71 AH points more toward Den Bosch than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Dordrecht +0.25
@ 3.16
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.71
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.90
Price Advantage
+9.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.58 / 2.92 -0.25 1.59 / 2.88 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.63 / 3.19 -0.25 1.64 / 3.16 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.62 / 3.10 -0.25 1.62 / 3.10 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.58 / 2.92 -0.25 1.59 / 2.88 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.96
xG 2.49 / 1.49 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.64
Den Bosch @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.53
Den Bosch @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.64 vs 1.53
Market price is 7.2% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 2.88 6.25
-1.25 2.68 5.89
-1.00 2.38 5.50
-0.75 1.98 3.98
-0.25 1.59 2.88
0 1.40 2.56
+0.25 1.32 2.10
+0.75 1.17 1.68
+1.00 1.08 1.52
+1.25 1.07 1.42
+1.50 1.06 1.32

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 2.68 6.80
-1.00 2.38 6.25
-0.75 2.05 4.40
-0.50 1.82 3.55
-0.25 1.62 3.10
0 1.42 2.75
+0.25 1.35 2.25
+0.50 1.27 1.98
+0.75 1.20 1.75
+1.00 1.12 1.55
+1.25 1.10 1.45

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 2.88 6.25
-1.25 2.62 5.90
-1.00 2.38 5.50
-0.75 1.98 3.98
-0.25 1.59 2.88
0 1.40 2.56
+0.25 1.32 2.10
+0.75 1.17 1.68
+1.00 1.08 1.52
+1.25 1.07 1.39
+1.50 1.06 1.32

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.85 3.53
-0.25 1.64 3.16
0 1.43 2.78
+0.25 1.34 2.24
+0.50 1.28 1.95
Primary Bets
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