Jong AZ vs FC Volendam Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Jong AZ
Final Score
4 – 1
(HT 2-0)
FC Volendam
Kick-off 18:00 Stadium AFAS Trainingscomplex

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Jong AZ opened at -0.25 against FC Volendam in the Eerste Divisie. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.12
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.40 / 1.53
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Jong AZ -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.37
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.37 AH points more toward FC Volendam than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
FC Volendam +0.25
@ 1.97
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.37
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.66
Price Advantage
+18.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
0
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:30
Opening
-0.25
17:21
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
17:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.32 / 1.87 -0.25 2.35 / 1.84 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.99 / 1.82 0 2.18 / 1.71 0 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.42 / 1.95 -0.25 2.42 / 1.95 -0.25 0
1xBet 0 1.94 / 1.77 -0.25 2.37 / 1.84 -0.25 -0.25
Betano -0.25 2.25 / 2.05 -0.25 2.40 / 1.95 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.33 / 1.90 -0.25 2.39 / 1.86 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.60 6.60
-2.00 8.70 5.95
-1.75 6.15 4.35
-1.50 4.85 3.50
-1.25 4.50 3.20
-1.00 4.15 2.88
-0.75 3.08 2.35
-0.25 2.37 1.84
0 2.10 1.66
+0.25 1.79 1.52
+0.75 1.47 1.28
+1.00 1.32 1.16
+1.25 1.26 1.13
+1.50 1.22 1.11
+1.75 1.14 1.06
+2.50 1.05 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.60 4.65
-1.50 5.25 3.80
-1.25 4.65 3.45
-1.00 4.40 3.10
-0.75 3.45 2.50
-0.50 2.75 2.20
-0.25 2.42 1.95
0 2.15 1.68
+0.25 1.85 1.52
+0.50 1.65 1.42
+0.75 1.50 1.30
+1.00 1.35 1.20
+1.25 1.30 1.18
+1.50 1.25 1.16
+1.75 1.18 1.11

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.39 1.86
0 2.10 1.63
+0.25 1.81 1.49

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.52 2.18
-0.25 2.40 1.95
+0.25 1.83 1.55
+0.50 1.67 1.50

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.80 6.60
-2.00 8.70 5.90
-1.75 6.15 4.35
-1.50 4.85 3.50
-1.25 4.50 3.20
-1.00 4.15 2.88
-0.75 3.14 2.38
-0.25 2.35 1.84
0 2.10 1.66
+0.25 1.79 1.48
+0.75 1.46 1.27
+1.00 1.32 1.16
+1.25 1.26 1.13
+1.50 1.22 1.11
+1.75 1.14 1.06

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.99 3.08
-0.75 3.38 2.54
-0.50 2.79 2.21
-0.25 2.49 1.97
0 2.18 1.71
+0.25 1.88 1.55
+0.50 1.69 1.45
+0.75 1.53 1.33
+1.00 1.38 1.24
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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