Parma vs Genoa Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Parma
Final Score
2 – 1
(HT 1-0)
Genoa
Kick-off 13:00 Stadium Stadio Ennio Tardini

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Parma opened at 0 against Genoa in the Serie A. The current market consensus is 0, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 7 valid books, with 71% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.51
Parma +0.51

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 0.88 / 1.44
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Parma 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 5 / 7 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.51
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.51 AH points more toward Genoa than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Genoa 0
@ 1.78
Best Available Price · 1xBet
Line Edge
0.51
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.46
Price Advantage
+21.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 7 valid books · 71% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → 0
Pinnacle Closing
0
Consensus Closing
0
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:35
Opening
0
12:01
Last Pre-Match
0
13:01
PRE1
0
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
SBO SHARP BOOK +0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 3 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 2.10 / 1.74 0 2.14 / 1.71 0 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.16 / 1.77 0 2.19 / 1.75 0 0
SBO SHARP BOOK +0.25 1.78 / 1.51 +0.25 1.74 / 1.51 +0.25 0
Bet365 0 2.10 / 1.78 0 2.10 / 1.70 0 0
1xBet 0 2.17 / 1.80 0 2.20 / 1.78 0 0
Betano +0.25 1.75 / 1.53 +0.25 1.75 / 1.52 +0.25 0
BetVictor 0 2.01 / 1.68 0 2.02 / 1.68 0 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.20 6.80
-1.50 6.85 5.20
-1.25 6.43 4.72
-1.00 5.90 4.25
-0.75 3.84 2.93
-0.25 2.69 2.06
0 2.20 1.78
+0.25 1.70 1.56
+0.75 1.34 1.22
+1.00 1.18 1.09
+1.25 1.13 1.07
+1.50 1.10 1.05

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.00 5.50
-1.25 6.80 4.80
-1.00 6.00 4.25
-0.75 3.90 3.00
-0.50 3.10 2.42
-0.25 2.60 2.12
0 2.10 1.70
+0.25 1.75 1.48
+0.50 1.52 1.35
+0.75 1.38 1.24
+1.00 1.21 1.12
+1.25 1.18 1.10
+1.50 1.15 1.10

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 5.65 4.40
-0.75 3.70 2.97
-0.50 2.87 2.39
-0.25 2.45 2.04
0 2.02 1.68
+0.25 1.67 1.47
+0.50 1.49 1.35
+0.75 1.33 1.22
+1.00 1.16 1.10

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.95 3.15
-0.50 3.10 2.55
-0.25 2.62 2.15
+0.25 1.75 1.52
+0.50 1.55 1.40
+0.75 1.38 1.27

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.20 6.75
-1.50 6.95 5.15
-1.25 6.50 4.70
-1.00 6.00 4.20
-0.75 3.84 2.94
-0.25 2.57 2.04
0 2.14 1.71
+0.25 1.71 1.46
+0.75 1.35 1.22
+1.00 1.18 1.09
+1.25 1.14 1.07
+1.50 1.11 1.05

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 6.68 4.70
-0.75 4.21 3.24
-0.50 3.22 2.59
-0.25 2.72 2.19
0 2.19 1.75
+0.25 1.78 1.52
+0.50 1.56 1.39
+0.75 1.39 1.26
+1.00 1.22 1.14

SBO Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.69 2.21
+0.25 1.74 1.51
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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