Predictions / Football / Argentina. Reserve League / San Lorenzo Res. vs Huracán Res.

Prediction Audit: San Lorenzo Res. vs Huracán Res. Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

San Lorenzo Res. San Lorenzo Res.
Sep 22, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.33
2 1.27
xG Accuracy: 57%
Huracán Res. Huracán Res.

The model missed the final outcome (Huracán Res. win 0–2).

The model had projected San Lorenzo Res. at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 San Lorenzo Res. Huracán Res. ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Huracán Res. considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Huracán Res. +5.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
San Lorenzo Res. 36.6% 40.8% -4.2 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 31.2% -1.6 pp Aligned
Huracán Res. 33.8% 28.1% +5.7 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Huracán Res.'s win probability at 33.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.1%, a difference of 5.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Huracán Res. win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Huracán Res..

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on San Lorenzo Res. by 5.7 percentage points (30.9% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 22, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · San Lorenzo Res. 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Huracán Res. 33.8%
    • xG · San Lorenzo Res. 1.33 — Huracán Res. 1.27
  2. Sep 22, 2026 · 17:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · San Lorenzo Res. 2.25 · Draw 2.94 · Huracán Res. 3.27
    • Implied 1X2 · San Lorenzo Res. 40.8% · Draw 31.2% · Huracán Res. 28.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 22, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · San Lorenzo Res. 2.25 · Draw 2.94 · Huracán Res. 3.27
    • Implied 1X2 · San Lorenzo Res. 40.8% · Draw 31.2% · Huracán Res. 28.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 22, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Huracán Res. win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 71/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 16, 2026 · 02:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8991375

Closing Odds 3.27
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Huracán Res. win · San Lorenzo Res. 0–2 Huracán Res.
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Reserve League
  • Fixture: San Lorenzo Res. vs Huracán Res.
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-22 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): San Lorenzo Res. 1.33 — Huracán Res. 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 39.1% · Probability edge: +9.1 pts · Est. EV: +18.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Reserve League Reserve League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vélez Sársfield Res. 20 15 2 3 47
2 Boca Juniors Res. 20 12 3 5 39
3 Racing Club Res. 21 11 6 4 39
4 River Plate Res. 21 11 4 6 37
5 Independiente Res. 19 11 3 5 36
6 Lanús Res. 19 11 2 6 35
7 Newell's Old Boys Res. 19 10 4 5 34
8 Quilmes 2 18 10 3 5 33
9 Defensa y Justicia Res. 18 9 5 4 32
10 Atlético Tucumán Res. 19 9 3 7 30
11 Unión Santa Fe Res. 18 7 8 3 29
12 Estudiantes La Plata Res 18 8 4 6 28
13 Argentinos Juniors Res. 18 7 7 4 28
14 Belgrano Córdoba Res. 18 8 3 7 27
15 Talleres Córdoba Res. 18 7 5 6 26
16 Huracán Res. 18 7 5 6 26
17 Rosario Central Res. 18 7 5 6 26
18 Platense Res. 18 7 5 6 26
19 Deportivo Riestra Res. 18 7 4 7 25
20 Independiente Riva. Res. 18 7 3 8 24
21 Instituto Res. 18 5 9 4 24
22 San Lorenzo Res. 18 6 6 6 24
23 Gimnasia La Plata Res. 18 6 5 7 23
24 Gimnasia Mendoza 2 18 6 5 7 23
25 Banfield Res. 18 6 5 7 23
26 Ferro 2 18 6 4 8 22
27 Central Córdoba SdE Res. 18 5 4 9 19
28 Colón Res. 18 5 3 10 18
29 Aldosivi Res. 18 5 3 10 18
30 Barracas Central Res. 18 4 5 9 17
31 Sarmiento Res. 18 4 4 10 16
32 Tigre Res. 18 4 4 10 16
33 Godoy Cruz Res. 18 4 3 11 15
34 Atl. Rafaela 2 18 3 3 12 12
35 Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 18 2 5 11 11
36 San Martín San Juan Res. 18 2 2 14 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vélez Sársfield Res. 20 42 13 +29 47
2 Lanús Res. 19 40 27 +13 35
3 Independiente Res. 19 38 19 +19 36
4 Defensa y Justicia Res. 18 38 24 +14 32
5 Boca Juniors Res. 20 36 12 +24 39
6 Racing Club Res. 21 33 26 +7 39
7 River Plate Res. 21 29 20 +9 37
8 Newell's Old Boys Res. 19 27 18 +9 34
9 Talleres Córdoba Res. 18 27 21 +6 26
10 Belgrano Córdoba Res. 18 27 29 -2 27
11 Atlético Tucumán Res. 19 26 28 -2 30
12 Estudiantes La Plata Res 18 25 16 +9 28
13 Deportivo Riestra Res. 18 25 18 +7 25
14 Rosario Central Res. 18 25 22 +3 26
15 Argentinos Juniors Res. 18 24 18 +6 28
16 Huracán Res. 18 23 17 +6 26
17 Unión Santa Fe Res. 18 23 19 +4 29
18 Independiente Riva. Res. 18 23 23 0 24
19 San Lorenzo Res. 18 22 24 -2 24
20 Central Córdoba SdE Res. 18 21 33 -12 19
21 Atl. Rafaela 2 18 21 36 -15 12
22 Quilmes 2 18 20 12 +8 33
23 Instituto Res. 18 20 21 -1 24
24 Ferro 2 18 20 23 -3 22
25 Godoy Cruz Res. 18 20 30 -10 15
26 Gimnasia La Plata Res. 18 19 17 +2 23
27 Platense Res. 18 17 20 -3 26
28 Aldosivi Res. 18 17 28 -11 18
29 Gimnasia Mendoza 2 18 16 19 -3 23
30 Sarmiento Res. 18 16 26 -10 16
31 San Martín San Juan Res. 18 16 59 -43 8
32 Colón Res. 18 15 23 -8 18
33 Tigre Res. 18 15 25 -10 16
34 Banfield Res. 18 14 18 -4 23
35 Barracas Central Res. 18 11 24 -13 17
36 Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 18 9 32 -23 11
Reserve League Argentina. Reserve League Predictions