The model missed the final outcome (Newport County win 0–2).
The model had projected Swindon Town at 41.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Swindon Town Newport County ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon Town | 41.9% | 47.6% | -5.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.3% | 24.5% | +4.8 pp | Aligned |
| Newport County | 28.8% | 27.9% | +1.0 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Swindon Town's win probability at 47.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.9%, a difference of 5.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Newport County win 0–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Swindon Town. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Swindon Town; match finished Newport County
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Swindon Town by 5.8 percentage points (47.7% vs model 41.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Swindon Town 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Newport County 28.8%
- xG · Swindon Town 1.44 — Newport County 1.16
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 17:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Swindon Town 1.76 · Draw 3.91 · Newport County 3.84
- Implied 1X2 · Swindon Town 52.4% · Draw 23.6% · Newport County 24.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Swindon Town 1.97 · Draw 3.83 · Newport County 3.37
- Implied 1X2 · Swindon Town 47.6% · Draw 24.5% · Newport County 27.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Newport County win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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