Benin vs Mauritania Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Benin
Sep 29, 2026 - 17:00
1.34 1.26
Mauritania
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 6 books · 67% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Benin opened at -0.25 against Mauritania in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 6 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Benin -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.18
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 6 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.18 AH points more toward Mauritania than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Mauritania +0.25
@ 2.77
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.18
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.80
Price Advantage
+53.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 6 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.82 / 2.65 -0.25 1.95 / 2.49 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.00 / 2.96 0 1.66 / 2.21 — +0.25
Bet365 -0.25 1.95 / 2.75 0 1.75 / 2.05 — +0.25
1xBet -0.25 1.86 / 2.65 -0.25 1.99 / 2.49 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.95 / 2.70 -0.25 2.05 / 2.50 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.99 / 2.56 -0.25 2.01 / 2.53 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.07
xG 1.34 / 1.26 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.95
Benin @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.24
Benin @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.95 vs 2.24
Market price is 12.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.54 9.00
-1.50 4.95 6.80
-1.25 4.50 6.34
-1.00 3.98 5.80
-0.75 2.78 3.72
-0.25 1.99 2.49
0 1.65 2.12
+0.25 1.43 1.74
+0.75 1.19 1.34
+1.00 1.07 1.17
+1.25 1.05 1.13
+1.50 1.04 1.11

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.50 6.80
-1.25 5.00 6.25
-1.00 4.40 5.75
-0.75 3.00 3.55
-0.50 2.42 2.85
-0.25 2.10 2.42
0 1.75 2.05
+0.25 1.52 1.70
+0.50 1.40 1.52
+0.75 1.27 1.38
+1.00 1.14 1.20
+1.25 1.12 1.17
+1.50 1.10 1.15

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.01 2.53
0 1.65 2.07
+0.25 1.44 1.68

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.40 2.92
-0.25 2.05 2.50
+0.25 1.50 1.72
+0.50 1.38 1.53

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.55 9.00
-1.50 4.95 6.80
-1.25 4.50 6.30
-1.00 4.00 5.80
-0.75 2.78 3.72
-0.25 1.95 2.49
0 1.65 2.12
+0.25 1.43 1.70
+0.75 1.20 1.34
+1.00 1.07 1.17
+1.25 1.06 1.13
+1.50 1.04 1.11

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.17 4.13
-0.50 2.57 3.33
-0.25 2.14 2.77
0 1.66 2.21
+0.25 1.42 1.72
+0.50 1.30 1.50
+0.75 1.21 1.33
Primary Bets
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