Rep. Of Ireland vs Austria Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Rep. Of Ireland
Oct 01, 2026 - 18:45
1.72 2.07
Austria
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
6 / 6 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Rep. Of Ireland opened at -0.25 against Austria in the UEFA Nations League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.33
Rep. Of Ireland +0.33

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Rep. Of Ireland -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.58
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.58 AH points more toward Austria than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Austria +0.25
@ 1.91
Best Available Price · Betano
Line Edge
0.58
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.57
Price Advantage
+21.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.90 / 1.79 -0.25 2.90 / 1.81 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.00 / 1.87 -0.25 3.03 / 1.86 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.75 / 1.78 -0.25 2.85 / 1.82 — 0
1xBet -0.25 3.02 / 1.79 -0.25 3.02 / 1.81 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.91 / 1.50 -0.25 2.87 / 1.91 — -0.50
BetVictor -0.25 2.91 / 1.74 -0.25 2.84 / 1.78 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.33
xG 1.72 / 2.07 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
3.03
Rep. Of Ireland @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.75
Rep. Of Ireland @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
3.03 vs 2.75
Market price is 10.2% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.70 5.16
-1.50 7.50 4.05
-1.25 7.23 3.63
-1.00 6.70 3.22
-0.75 4.33 2.44
-0.25 3.02 1.81
0 2.53 1.57
+0.25 1.94 1.43
+0.75 1.49 1.18
+1.00 1.30 1.07
+1.25 1.22 1.06
+1.50 1.18 1.04

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 6.80 3.30
-0.75 4.25 2.50
-0.50 3.45 2.10
-0.25 2.85 1.82
0 2.42 1.52
+0.25 1.98 1.40
+0.50 1.70 1.30
+0.75 1.50 1.21
+1.00 1.32 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.84 1.78
0 2.39 1.49
+0.25 1.89 1.35

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.30 2.22
-0.25 2.87 1.91
+0.25 1.93 1.45
+0.50 1.70 1.35

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.70 5.20
-1.50 7.50 4.05
-1.25 7.20 3.65
-1.00 6.70 3.22
-0.75 4.33 2.45
-0.25 2.90 1.81
0 2.49 1.55
+0.25 1.94 1.38
+0.75 1.50 1.18
+1.00 1.30 1.07
+1.25 1.23 1.06
+1.50 1.18 1.04

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.60 2.59
-0.50 3.50 2.16
-0.25 3.03 1.86
0 2.52 1.53
+0.25 1.99 1.39
+0.50 1.71 1.31
+0.75 1.51 1.20
Primary Bets
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