São Bernardo vs CRB Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

São Bernardo
Oct 02, 2026 - 22:30
1.29 1.32
CRB
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 6 books · 83% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

São Bernardo opened at -0.25 against CRB in the Serie B. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.03
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
São Bernardo -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.28
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.28 AH points more toward CRB than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
CRB +0.25
@ 2.60
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.28
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.71
Price Advantage
+52.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.88 / 2.46 -0.25 1.92 / 2.40 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.99 / 2.66 0 1.72 / 2.15 — +0.25
Bet365 -0.25 2.00 / 2.60 -0.25 2.00 / 2.60 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.92 / 2.46 -0.25 1.96 / 2.40 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.98 / 2.52 -0.25 1.98 / 2.52 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.90 / 2.52 -0.25 1.94 / 2.44 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.03
xG 1.29 / 1.32 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.92
São Bernardo @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.40
São Bernardo @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.92 vs 2.40
Market price is 20.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.94 8.30
-1.50 4.50 6.15
-1.25 4.04 5.64
-1.00 3.58 5.10
-0.75 2.62 3.42
-0.25 1.96 2.40
0 1.67 2.09
+0.25 1.46 1.76
+0.75 1.23 1.38
+1.00 1.10 1.21
+1.25 1.08 1.16
+1.50 1.06 1.13

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.40 6.25
-1.25 4.00 5.90
-1.00 3.55 5.50
-0.75 2.68 3.70
-0.50 2.30 3.00
-0.25 2.00 2.60
0 1.68 2.15
+0.25 1.48 1.80
+0.50 1.38 1.60
+0.75 1.26 1.45
+1.00 1.15 1.27
+1.25 1.13 1.23
+1.50 1.12 1.20

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.94 2.44
0 1.64 2.08
+0.25 1.47 1.74

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.98 2.52
+0.25 1.50 1.80

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.95 8.30
-1.50 4.50 6.15
-1.25 4.05 5.65
-1.00 3.58 5.10
-0.75 2.62 3.42
-0.25 1.92 2.40
0 1.67 2.09
+0.25 1.46 1.73
+0.75 1.23 1.38
+1.00 1.10 1.21
+1.25 1.08 1.16
+1.50 1.06 1.13

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.87 3.69
-0.50 2.38 2.93
-0.25 2.06 2.55
0 1.72 2.15
+0.25 1.52 1.79
+0.50 1.40 1.60
+0.75 1.28 1.43
Primary Bets
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