Järfälla vs Karlberg Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Järfälla
Final Score
5 – 0
(HT 1-0)
Karlberg
Kick-off 17:30 Stadium Jarfallavallen

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Järfälla opened at -0.25 against Karlberg in the Ettan - Norra. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.33 / 1.27
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Järfälla -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.20
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.20 AH points more toward Karlberg than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Järfälla -0.25
@ 3.00
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.20
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.27
Price Advantage
+32.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:15
Opening
-0.25
12:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
17:29
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.49 / 1.78 -0.25 2.78 / 1.64 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.99 / 1.65 -0.25 2.90 / 1.68 -0.25 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.68 / 1.82 -0.25 3.00 / 1.68 -0.25 0
1xBet 0 2.20 / 1.57 -0.25 2.81 / 1.64 -0.25 -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 9.50 5.30
-1.75 8.15 3.88
-1.50 6.35 3.14
-1.25 5.95 2.83
-1.00 5.55 2.52
-0.75 3.92 2.08
-0.25 2.81 1.64
0 2.49 1.44
+0.25 2.02 1.35
+0.75 1.60 1.18
+1.00 1.41 1.08
+1.25 1.33 1.07
+1.50 1.27 1.06
+1.75 1.18 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.00 3.10
-1.25 6.60 2.85
-1.00 6.00 2.50
-0.75 4.25 2.10
-0.50 3.45 1.90
-0.25 3.00 1.68
0 2.68 1.45
+0.25 2.15 1.38
+0.50 1.90 1.30
+0.75 1.70 1.21
+1.00 1.50 1.12
+1.25 1.40 1.11
+1.50 1.35 1.10

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.20 3.88
-1.50 6.35 3.14
-1.25 5.95 2.83
-1.00 5.55 2.52
-0.75 3.92 2.08
-0.25 2.78 1.64
0 2.49 1.44
+0.25 2.02 1.34
+0.75 1.60 1.18
+1.00 1.41 1.08
+1.25 1.33 1.07
+1.50 1.27 1.06
+1.75 1.18 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.90 1.68
0 2.55 1.47
+0.25 2.12 1.37
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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