Predictions / Football / Canada. Canadian Premier League / Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec

Prediction Audit: Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Cavalry FC Cavalry FC
Sep 26, 2026 - 01:00
6 1.87
0 1.46
xG Accuracy: 22%
⚽
Supra du Quebec

AI correctly predicted the Cavalry FC win.

The match finished 6–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Cavalry FC Cavalry FC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-2 6-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Cavalry FC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Cavalry FC -13.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Cavalry FC 46.1% 59.1% -13.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.0% 21.6% +3.3 pp Aligned
Supra du Quebec 29.0% 19.3% +9.7 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Cavalry FC's win probability at 59.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 46.1%, a difference of 13.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Cavalry FC win 6–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Cavalry FC than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.33) — 6 goals materialised
  • Cavalry FC attacking xG significantly stronger (1.87 vs 1.46)
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Cavalry FC higher (59.1% vs model 46.1%, 13.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Cavalry FC win 6–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Cavalry FC 46.0% · Draw 25.0% · Supra du Quebec 29.0%
    • xG · Cavalry FC 1.87 — Supra du Quebec 1.46
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Cavalry FC 1.55 · Draw 4.23 · Supra du Quebec 4.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Cavalry FC 59.1% · Draw 21.6% · Supra du Quebec 19.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Cavalry FC 1.55 · Draw 4.23 · Supra du Quebec 4.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Cavalry FC 59.1% · Draw 21.6% · Supra du Quebec 19.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Cavalry FC win · 6–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 34/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10076064

Closing Odds 1.55
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Cavalry FC win · Cavalry FC 6–0 Supra du Quebec
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Canadian Premier League
  • Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 01:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 46.1% · Draw 25.0% · Away 29.0%
  • xG (showing): Cavalry FC 1.87 — Supra du Quebec 1.46 (total xG ≈ 3.33)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 66.2% · Implied: 58.1% · Probability edge: +8.1 pts · Est. EV: +7.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 66.2% · No 33.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.8%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Canadian Premier League Canadian Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cavalry FC 23 16 5 2 53
2 Forge 23 14 5 4 47
3 Atlético Ottawa 24 11 4 9 37
4 Vancouver FC 25 9 6 10 33
5 HFX Wanderers FC 24 7 5 12 26
6 Supra du Quebec 23 7 4 12 25
7 York United 23 5 9 9 24
8 Pacific FC 23 2 8 13 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cavalry FC 23 48 13 +35 53
2 York United 23 36 53 -17 24
3 Forge 23 35 17 +18 47
4 Vancouver FC 25 35 33 +2 33
5 Atlético Ottawa 24 35 39 -4 37
6 HFX Wanderers FC 24 35 39 -4 26
7 Supra du Quebec 23 31 44 -13 25
8 Pacific FC 23 30 47 -17 14
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Cavalry FC 23 7.3 2.4 +4.9 53
2 Pacific FC 23 12.1 9.3 +2.8 14
3 Forge 23 8.3 6.8 +1.5 47
4 Vancouver FC 25 6.4 5.8 +0.6 33
5 Supra du Quebec 23 9.9 10.1 -0.2 25
6 HFX Wanderers FC 24 9.0 10.8 -1.8 26
7 Atlético Ottawa 24 6.8 9.3 -2.5 37
8 York United 23 7.3 12.5 -5.2 24
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