Predictions / Football / Sweden. Ettan - Norra / Järfälla vs Karlberg

Prediction Audit: Järfälla vs Karlberg Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Järfälla Järfälla
Sep 17, 2026 - 17:30
5 1.33
0 1.27
xG Accuracy: 26%
Karlberg Karlberg

AI correctly predicted the Järfälla win.

The match finished 5–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Järfälla Järfälla ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Karlberg higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Karlberg -14.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Järfälla 36.6% 27.8% +8.8 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 24.0% +5.7 pp Model Higher
Karlberg 33.8% 48.2% -14.5 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Karlberg's win probability at 48.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 14.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Järfälla win 5–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Karlberg than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Järfälla higher (51.1% vs model 36.6%, 14.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Järfälla win 5–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 17, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Järfälla 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Karlberg 33.8%
    • xG · Järfälla 1.33 — Karlberg 1.27
  2. Sep 17, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Järfälla 3.30 · Draw 3.82 · Karlberg 1.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Järfälla 27.8% · Draw 24.0% · Karlberg 48.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 17, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Järfälla 3.30 · Draw 3.82 · Karlberg 1.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Järfälla 27.8% · Draw 24.0% · Karlberg 48.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 17, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Järfälla win · 5–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 9/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 11, 2026 · 04:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7998788

Closing Odds 1.9
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Järfälla win · Järfälla 5–0 Karlberg
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Ettan - Norra
  • Fixture: Järfälla vs Karlberg
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-17 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Järfälla 1.33 — Karlberg 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 38.4% · Probability edge: +13.4 pts · Est. EV: +32.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Ettan - Norra Ettan - Norra — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Stockholm Internazionale 24 17 3 4 54
2 AFC Eskilstuna 24 14 4 6 46
3 Hammarby Talang 24 13 6 5 45
4 Arlanda 24 13 6 5 45
5 FBK Karlstad 24 12 6 6 42
6 IF Karlstad 24 11 7 6 40
7 Enköping 24 12 3 9 39
8 Assyriska FF 24 9 5 10 32
9 gefle IF 24 9 3 12 30
10 Umeå FC 24 8 5 11 29
11 Karlberg 24 8 5 11 29
12 Vasalund 24 7 6 11 27
13 Sollentuna 24 5 9 10 24
14 Piteå 24 5 6 13 21
15 Järfälla 24 5 3 16 18
16 Stocksund 24 3 5 16 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Stockholm Internazionale 24 57 20 +37 54
2 Hammarby Talang 24 50 23 +27 45
3 AFC Eskilstuna 24 45 32 +13 46
4 Stocksund 24 44 60 -16 14
5 Assyriska FF 24 43 42 +1 32
6 Arlanda 24 42 27 +15 45
7 FBK Karlstad 24 39 33 +6 42
8 Enköping 24 37 40 -3 39
9 IF Karlstad 24 36 24 +12 40
10 Vasalund 24 35 48 -13 27
11 Umeå FC 24 32 40 -8 29
12 Järfälla 24 32 54 -22 18
13 Karlberg 24 30 39 -9 29
14 gefle IF 24 29 42 -13 30
15 Piteå 24 29 45 -16 21
16 Sollentuna 24 22 33 -11 24
Ettan - Norra Sweden. Ettan - Norra Predictions