Falkenbergs FF vs Ostersunds FK Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Falkenbergs FF
Final Score
0 – 0
(HT 0-0)
Ostersunds FK
Kick-off 17:00 Stadium Falcon Alkoholfri Arena

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Falkenbergs FF opened at -0.25 against Ostersunds FK in the Superettan. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.43
Falkenbergs FF -0.43

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.97 / 1.51
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Falkenbergs FF -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.18
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.18 AH points more toward Falkenbergs FF than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Ostersunds FK +0.25
@ 2.67
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.18
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.19
Price Advantage
+21.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
03:00
Opening
-0.25
16:14
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
16:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.92 / 2.43 -0.25 1.95 / 2.46 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.01 / 2.58 -0.25 2.06 / 2.67 -0.25 0
Bet365 0 1.70 / 2.10 0 1.70 / 2.10 0 0
1xBet 0 1.72 / 2.00 -0.25 1.99 / 2.46 -0.25 -0.25
Betano -0.25 1.98 / 2.47 -0.25 2.05 / 2.40 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.95 / 2.41 -0.25 1.96 / 2.46 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.24 8.70
-1.50 4.70 6.45
-1.25 4.25 5.94
-1.00 3.78 5.40
-0.75 2.74 3.58
-0.25 1.99 2.46
0 1.67 2.09
+0.25 1.44 1.74
+0.75 1.21 1.35
+1.00 1.09 1.19
+1.25 1.07 1.15
+1.50 1.05 1.12

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.65 6.25
-1.25 4.15 5.90
-1.00 3.70 5.25
-0.75 2.75 3.55
-0.50 2.30 2.85
-0.25 2.05 2.42
0 1.70 2.10
+0.25 1.52 1.75
+0.50 1.40 1.60
+0.75 1.27 1.42
+1.00 1.16 1.26
+1.25 1.13 1.22
+1.50 1.12 1.18

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.96 2.46
0 1.65 2.07
+0.25 1.46 1.73

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.35 2.72
-0.25 2.05 2.40
+0.25 1.53 1.72
+0.50 1.42 1.55

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.20 8.80
-1.50 4.70 6.50
-1.25 4.25 5.95
-1.00 3.76 5.40
-0.75 2.74 3.58
-0.25 1.95 2.46
0 1.66 2.10
+0.25 1.44 1.70
+0.75 1.21 1.35
+1.00 1.09 1.19
+1.25 1.07 1.15
+1.50 1.05 1.12

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.93 3.96
-0.50 2.41 3.11
-0.25 2.06 2.67
0 1.70 2.21
+0.25 1.49 1.81
+0.50 1.38 1.59
+0.75 1.26 1.42
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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