The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected 基菲夏 at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追蹤市場與全場比賽結果
每行比較賽前模型傾向與全場比賽結果。
- 市場 預測 結果 結果
- 大小球2.5 小於2.5球 大於2.5球 (4 進球) ✖ 錯誤
- 雙方進球 雙方進球 (BTTS) 是 是 ✔ 正確
- 1X2 基菲夏 和局 ✖ 錯誤
- 波膽洞察 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ 錯誤
模型與收盤市場
| 結果 | 模型 | 收盤市場 | 差異 | 信號 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 馬爾科 | 32.4% | 25.4% | +7.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.2% | -0.6 pp | Aligned |
| 基菲夏 | 38.0% | 44.4% | -6.4 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates 馬爾科's win probability at 32.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.4%, a difference of 7.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全場比賽結束後，結果為 Draw 2–2。
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on 馬爾科.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
失误之处
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned 基菲夏; match finished Draw
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 基菲夏 by 7.0 percentage points (31.0% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
預測時間線
此預測如何從預測轉變為全場回顧。
-
Sep 02, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 馬爾科 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · 基菲夏 38.0%
- xG · 馬爾科 1.24 — 基菲夏 1.36
-
Sep 02, 2026 · 14:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 馬爾科 3.56 · Draw 3.00 · 基菲夏 2.04
- Implied 1X2 · 馬爾科 25.4% · Draw 30.2% · 基菲夏 44.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 02, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 馬爾科 3.56 · Draw 3.00 · 基菲夏 2.04
- Implied 1X2 · 馬爾科 25.4% · Draw 30.2% · 基菲夏 44.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 02, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
歷史快照
開賽時凍結 — 模型在比賽開始前的輸出。
賽前指標（歷史背景）
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
回顧常見問題
- 預測的準確性如何？
- 本頁面評估方向性市場（1X2、大小球 2.5、雙方進球）與全場比賽結果的對應情況。預測評級反映了這些追蹤市場中有多少與實際結果相符。
- xG 準確性測量什麼？
- xG 準確性比較模型賽前的預期進球數與實際比分 — 而非每個市場是否命中。即使方向性回顧表現強勁，xG 準確性得分也可能中等。
- 為什麼未能預測精確比分？
- 即使模型對比賽輪廓的解讀良好，精確比分的結果仍屬於低概率事件。我們會突出顯示主要的比分範圍作為參考；未命中精確賠率線並不會否定方向性回顧。
- 這是否改善了 AI 的記錄？
- 每場完成的比賽都會記錄在我們的驗證流程中。彙總的命中率和 CLV 研究會另行發布 — 本頁面為逐場比賽的審核記錄。
預測僅供參考。請負責任地投注並量力而行。過去的表現不保證未來的結果。
