AI correctly predicted the Waterhouse win.
The match finished 0–5, validating the model's directional assessment.
追蹤市場與全場比賽結果
每行比較賽前模型傾向與全場比賽結果。
- 市場 預測 結果 結果
- 大小球2.5 小於2.5球 大於2.5球 (5 進球) ✖ 錯誤
- 雙方進球 雙方進球 (BTTS) 是 否 ✖ 錯誤
- 1X2 Waterhouse Waterhouse ✔ 正確
- 波膽洞察 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-5 ✖ 錯誤
模型與收盤市場
| 結果 | 模型 | 收盤市場 | 差異 | 信號 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Humble Lions | 29.2% | 19.2% | +10.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 25.6% | +3.8 pp | Aligned |
| Waterhouse | 41.4% | 55.2% | -13.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Waterhouse's win probability at 55.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.4%, a difference of 13.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全場比賽結束後，模型的方向性偏向與結果一致（Waterhouse win 0–5）。
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Waterhouse than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
失误之处
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
市场启示
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Waterhouse higher (55.2% vs model 41.4%, 13.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Waterhouse win 0–5).
預測時間線
此預測如何從預測轉變為全場回顧。
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 22:04 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Humble Lions 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Waterhouse 41.4%
- xG · Humble Lions 1.17 — Waterhouse 1.43
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 21:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Humble Lions 4.70 · Draw 3.54 · Waterhouse 1.64
- Implied 1X2 · Humble Lions 19.2% · Draw 25.6% · Waterhouse 55.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 22:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Humble Lions 4.70 · Draw 3.54 · Waterhouse 1.64
- Implied 1X2 · Humble Lions 19.2% · Draw 25.6% · Waterhouse 55.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 22:05 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Waterhouse win · 0–5
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
歷史快照
開賽時凍結 — 模型在比賽開始前的輸出。
賽前指標（歷史背景）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
回顧常見問題
- 預測的準確性如何？
- 本頁面評估方向性市場（1X2、大小球 2.5、雙方進球）與全場比賽結果的對應情況。預測評級反映了這些追蹤市場中有多少與實際結果相符。
- xG 準確性測量什麼？
- xG 準確性比較模型賽前的預期進球數與實際比分 — 而非每個市場是否命中。即使方向性回顧表現強勁，xG 準確性得分也可能中等。
- 為什麼未能預測精確比分？
- 即使模型對比賽輪廓的解讀良好，精確比分的結果仍屬於低概率事件。我們會突出顯示主要的比分範圍作為參考；未命中精確賠率線並不會否定方向性回顧。
- 這是否改善了 AI 的記錄？
- 每場完成的比賽都會記錄在我們的驗證流程中。彙總的命中率和 CLV 研究會另行發布 — 本頁面為逐場比賽的審核記錄。
預測僅供參考。請負責任地投注並量力而行。過去的表現不保證未來的結果。
探索更多預測內容
Premier League — 積分榜
| # | 球隊（TEAM） | 出賽場次（MP） | 勝（W） | 平局（D） | 輸（L） | 積分（PTS） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tru-Juice | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Montego Bay United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Waterhouse | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Cavalier | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 5 | Racing United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Tivoli Gardens | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Chapelton | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Portmore United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Arnett Gardens | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Molynes United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Mount Pleasant Academy | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Treasure Beach | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 13 | Dunbeholden | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 | Humble Lions | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | 球隊（TEAM） | 出賽場次（MP） | 進球（GS） | 失球（GC） | +/- | 積分（PTS） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waterhouse | 2 | 7 | 0 | +7 | 6 |
| 2 | Arnett Gardens | 3 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 3 |
| 3 | Tru-Juice | 3 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 7 |
| 4 | Tivoli Gardens | 3 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 5 |
| 5 | Cavalier | 2 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 6 | Portmore United | 1 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 7 | Racing United | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 8 | Molynes United | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | Montego Bay United | 3 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 7 |
| 10 | Chapelton | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Treasure Beach | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 1 |
| 12 | Mount Pleasant Academy | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 13 | Dunbeholden | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 |
| 14 | Humble Lions | 3 | 1 | 12 | -11 | 0 |
