The model missed the final outcome (普默斯泰因 win 0–1).
The model had projected 茲瓦盧文 at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追蹤市場與全場比賽結果
每行比較賽前模型傾向與全場比賽結果。
- 市場 預測 結果 結果
- 大小球2.5 小於2.5球 小於2.5球 (1 進球) ✔ 正確
- 雙方進球 雙方進球 (BTTS) 否 否 ✔ 正確
- 1X2 茲瓦盧文 普默斯泰因 ✖ 錯誤
- 波膽洞察 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ 正確
模型與收盤市場
| 結果 | 模型 | 收盤市場 | 差異 | 信號 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 茲瓦盧文 | 36.6% | 38.2% | -1.6 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.7% | +5.9 pp | Model Higher |
| 普默斯泰因 | 33.8% | 38.1% | -4.3 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.7%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全場比賽結束後，結果為 普默斯泰因 win 0–1。
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
失误之处
- 1X2: model leaned 茲瓦盧文; match finished 普默斯泰因
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 茲瓦盧文 by 5.9 percentage points (30.7% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
預測時間線
此預測如何從預測轉變為全場回顧。
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 茲瓦盧文 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · 普默斯泰因 33.8%
- xG · 茲瓦盧文 1.33 — 普默斯泰因 1.27
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 茲瓦盧文 2.34 · Draw 3.80 · 普默斯泰因 2.31
- Implied 1X2 · 茲瓦盧文 38.0% · Draw 23.4% · 普默斯泰因 38.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 茲瓦盧文 2.35 · Draw 3.79 · 普默斯泰因 2.36
- Implied 1X2 · 茲瓦盧文 38.2% · Draw 23.7% · 普默斯泰因 38.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 普默斯泰因 win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
歷史快照
開賽時凍結 — 模型在比賽開始前的輸出。
賽前指標（歷史背景）
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
回顧常見問題
- 預測的準確性如何？
- 本頁面評估方向性市場（1X2、大小球 2.5、雙方進球）與全場比賽結果的對應情況。預測評級反映了這些追蹤市場中有多少與實際結果相符。
- xG 準確性測量什麼？
- xG 準確性比較模型賽前的預期進球數與實際比分 — 而非每個市場是否命中。即使方向性回顧表現強勁，xG 準確性得分也可能中等。
- 為什麼未能預測精確比分？
- 即使模型對比賽輪廓的解讀良好，精確比分的結果仍屬於低概率事件。我們會突出顯示主要的比分範圍作為參考；未命中精確賠率線並不會否定方向性回顧。
- 這是否改善了 AI 的記錄？
- 每場完成的比賽都會記錄在我們的驗證流程中。彙總的命中率和 CLV 研究會另行發布 — 本頁面為逐場比賽的審核記錄。
預測僅供參考。請負責任地投注並量力而行。過去的表現不保證未來的結果。
