預測 / 足球 / Uganda. Premier League / Lugazi vs Police

預測審核： Lugazi vs Police 預測、賠率與AI投注建議

Lugazi Lugazi
Sep 16, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.18
2 1.42
xG Accuracy: 62%
Police Police

AI correctly predicted the Police win.

The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

追蹤市場與全場比賽結果

預測評級 F

每行比較賽前模型傾向與全場比賽結果。

  • 市場 預測 結果 結果
  • 大小球2.5 大於2.5球 小於2.5球 (2 進球) ✖ 錯誤
  • 雙方進球 雙方進球 (BTTS) 是 否 ✖ 錯誤
  • 1X2 Police Police ✔ 正確
  • 波膽洞察 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-2 ✔ 正確

模型與收盤市場

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

最大概率差距: Police +4.3 pp

結果 模型 收盤市場 差異 信號
Lugazi 29.7% 31.8% -2.1 pp Aligned
Draw 29.4% 31.6% -2.2 pp Aligned
Police 40.9% 36.6% +4.3 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

全場比賽結束後，模型的方向性偏向與結果一致（Police win 0–2）。

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

赛后洞察

有效之处

  • Exact score 0–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

失误之处

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

市场启示

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Police win 0–2).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

預測時間線

此預測如何從預測轉變為全場回顧。

  1. Sep 16, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Lugazi 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Police 41.0%
    • xG · Lugazi 1.18 — Police 1.42
  2. Sep 16, 2026 · 12:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Lugazi 2.80 · Draw 2.78 · Police 2.45
    • Implied 1X2 · Lugazi 31.8% · Draw 32.0% · Police 36.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 16, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Lugazi 2.83 · Draw 2.85 · Police 2.46
    • Implied 1X2 · Lugazi 31.8% · Draw 31.6% · Police 36.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 16, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Police win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

歷史快照

開賽時凍結 — 模型在比賽開始前的輸出。

歷史判決: Observe
歷史決策 No Primary Bet
結果 Validated
賽前指標（歷史背景）
預測可靠性 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
證據 ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 78/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

验证报告

Immutable Snapshot

预测时间: Sep 10, 2026 · 08:43 UTC 快照 ID: dp-7885392

收盘赔率 2.46
AI 公平赔率 —
CLV 待定
最终赛果 Police win · Lugazi 0–2 Police
预测结果 ✔ Correct
决策评级 F

模型绩效

本场预测计入：

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

回顧常見問題

預測的準確性如何？
本頁面評估方向性市場（1X2、大小球 2.5、雙方進球）與全場比賽結果的對應情況。預測評級反映了這些追蹤市場中有多少與實際結果相符。
xG 準確性測量什麼？
xG 準確性比較模型賽前的預期進球數與實際比分 — 而非每個市場是否命中。即使方向性回顧表現強勁，xG 準確性得分也可能中等。
為什麼未能預測精確比分？
即使模型對比賽輪廓的解讀良好，精確比分的結果仍屬於低概率事件。我們會突出顯示主要的比分範圍作為參考；未命中精確賠率線並不會否定方向性回顧。
這是否改善了 AI 的記錄？
每場完成的比賽都會記錄在我們的驗證流程中。彙總的命中率和 CLV 研究會另行發布 — 本頁面為逐場比賽的審核記錄。

預測僅供參考。請負責任地投注並量力而行。過去的表現不保證未來的結果。

AI 比賽簡報

AI 比賽摘要

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Lugazi vs Police
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-16 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.0%
  • xG (showing): Lugazi 1.18 — Police 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.1% · Implied: 45.6% · Probability edge: +8.5 pts · Est. EV: +13.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

歷史推薦

歷史決策: No Primary Bet

結果: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

開賽前考慮的風險因素

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

最後更新

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

相關預測

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Premier League Premier League — 積分榜
# 球隊（TEAM） 出賽場次（MP） 勝（W） 平局（D） 輸（L） 積分（PTS）
1 BUL 4 4 0 0 12
2 NEC 4 3 1 0 10
3 SC維拉 4 3 1 0 10
4 Blacks Power 4 3 0 1 9
5 Police 4 2 1 1 7
6 Entebbe UPPC 4 2 1 1 7
7 Lugazi 4 2 0 2 6
8 UPDF 4 1 2 1 5
9 Express 4 1 1 2 4
10 KCCA 4 1 1 2 4
11 Vipers 2 1 0 1 3
12 Maroons 4 1 0 3 3
13 URA 3 1 0 2 3
14 Kitara 2 0 2 0 2
15 Mbarara City 3 0 2 1 2
16 Kataka 3 0 1 2 1
17 Kigezi HomeBoyz 3 0 1 2 1
18 Ntugasaze 4 0 0 4 0
# 球隊（TEAM） 出賽場次（MP） 進球（GS） 失球（GC） +/- 積分（PTS）
1 BUL 4 11 3 +8 12
2 NEC 4 9 2 +7 10
3 SC維拉 4 7 1 +6 10
4 Blacks Power 4 5 3 +2 9
5 Maroons 4 5 6 -1 3
6 Lugazi 4 4 6 -2 6
7 Police 4 3 1 +2 7
8 Vipers 2 3 1 +2 3
9 Entebbe UPPC 4 3 2 +1 7
10 Express 4 3 4 -1 4
11 URA 3 3 6 -3 3
12 UPDF 4 2 2 0 5
13 Kitara 2 2 2 0 2
14 Ntugasaze 4 2 11 -9 0
15 KCCA 4 1 4 -3 4
16 Kataka 3 1 5 -4 1
17 Kigezi HomeBoyz 3 1 5 -4 1
18 Mbarara City 3 0 1 -1 2
Premier League Uganda. Premier League 預測