The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected 皮涅倫塞 at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追蹤市場與全場比賽結果
每行比較賽前模型傾向與全場比賽結果。
- 市場 預測 結果 結果
- 大小球2.5 大於2.5球 小於2.5球 (2 進球) ✖ 錯誤
- 雙方進球 雙方進球 (BTTS) 是 是 ✔ 正確
- 1X2 皮涅倫塞 和局 ✖ 錯誤
- 波膽洞察 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ 正確
模型與收盤市場
| 結果 | 模型 | 收盤市場 | 差異 | 信號 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 皮涅倫塞 | 39.5% | 31.6% | +7.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 27.0% | +2.5 pp | Aligned |
| 特斯拉 | 31.0% | 41.4% | -10.4 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates 特斯拉's win probability at 41.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 10.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全場比賽結束後，結果為 Draw 1–1。
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about 特斯拉 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
失误之处
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned 皮涅倫塞; match finished Draw
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 皮涅倫塞 by 10.4 percentage points (49.9% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
預測時間線
此預測如何從預測轉變為全場回顧。
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 皮涅倫塞 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · 特斯拉 31.0%
- xG · 皮涅倫塞 1.39 — 特斯拉 1.21
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 皮涅倫塞 2.83 · Draw 3.31 · 特斯拉 2.16
- Implied 1X2 · 皮涅倫塞 31.6% · Draw 27.0% · 特斯拉 41.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 皮涅倫塞 2.83 · Draw 3.31 · 特斯拉 2.16
- Implied 1X2 · 皮涅倫塞 31.6% · Draw 27.0% · 特斯拉 41.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
歷史快照
開賽時凍結 — 模型在比賽開始前的輸出。
賽前指標（歷史背景）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
回顧常見問題
- 預測的準確性如何？
- 本頁面評估方向性市場（1X2、大小球 2.5、雙方進球）與全場比賽結果的對應情況。預測評級反映了這些追蹤市場中有多少與實際結果相符。
- xG 準確性測量什麼？
- xG 準確性比較模型賽前的預期進球數與實際比分 — 而非每個市場是否命中。即使方向性回顧表現強勁，xG 準確性得分也可能中等。
- 為什麼未能預測精確比分？
- 即使模型對比賽輪廓的解讀良好，精確比分的結果仍屬於低概率事件。我們會突出顯示主要的比分範圍作為參考；未命中精確賠率線並不會否定方向性回顧。
- 這是否改善了 AI 的記錄？
- 每場完成的比賽都會記錄在我們的驗證流程中。彙總的命中率和 CLV 研究會另行發布 — 本頁面為逐場比賽的審核記錄。
預測僅供參考。請負責任地投注並量力而行。過去的表現不保證未來的結果。
巴西. 巴拉州甲級A3聯賽 預測
