預測 / 足球 / Thailand. 泰國甲級足球聯賽 / Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC

預測審核： Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC 預測、賠率與AI投注建議

Nakhon Pathom Nakhon Pathom
Sep 05, 2026 - 12:30
2 1.28
2 1.32
xG Accuracy: 68%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Nakhon Ratchasima FC

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

追蹤市場與全場比賽結果

預測評級 F

每行比較賽前模型傾向與全場比賽結果。

  • 市場 預測 結果 結果
  • 大小球2.5 小於2.5球 大於2.5球 (4 進球) ✖ 錯誤
  • 雙方進球 雙方進球 (BTTS) 是 是 ✔ 正確
  • 1X2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC 和局 ✖ 錯誤
  • 波膽洞察 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ 錯誤

模型與收盤市場

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Draw higher than the statistical model.

最大概率差距: Draw -9.2 pp

結果 模型 收盤市場 差異 信號
Nakhon Pathom 34.2% 30.6% +3.7 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 38.8% -9.2 pp Market Higher
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 36.1% 30.6% +5.5 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Draw's win probability at 38.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.6%, a difference of 9.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

全場比賽結束後，結果為 Draw 2–2。

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

赛后洞察

有效之处

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

失误之处

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Nakhon Ratchasima FC; match finished Draw

市场启示

The closing market differed from the model on Nakhon Ratchasima FC by 9.2 percentage points (45.2% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

預測時間線

此預測如何從預測轉變為全場回顧。

  1. Sep 05, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Nakhon Pathom 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Nakhon Ratchasima FC 36.1%
    • xG · Nakhon Pathom 1.28 — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.32
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 12:21 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Nakhon Pathom 2.96 · Draw 2.33 · Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.95
    • Implied 1X2 · Nakhon Pathom 30.6% · Draw 38.8% · Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 05, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Nakhon Pathom 2.96 · Draw 2.33 · Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.95
    • Implied 1X2 · Nakhon Pathom 30.6% · Draw 38.8% · Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 05, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

歷史快照

開賽時凍結 — 模型在比賽開始前的輸出。

歷史判決: Monitor
歷史決策 Monitor
結果 Missed
賽前指標（歷史背景）
預測可靠性 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
證據 ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 18/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

验证报告

Immutable Snapshot

预测时间: Aug 30, 2026 · 01:54 UTC 快照 ID: dp-6135971

收盘赔率 2.33
AI 公平赔率 —
CLV 待定
最终赛果 Draw · Nakhon Pathom 2–2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC
预测结果 ✖ Missed
决策评级 F

模型绩效

本场预测计入：

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

回顧常見問題

預測的準確性如何？
本頁面評估方向性市場（1X2、大小球 2.5、雙方進球）與全場比賽結果的對應情況。預測評級反映了這些追蹤市場中有多少與實際結果相符。
xG 準確性測量什麼？
xG 準確性比較模型賽前的預期進球數與實際比分 — 而非每個市場是否命中。即使方向性回顧表現強勁，xG 準確性得分也可能中等。
為什麼未能預測精確比分？
即使模型對比賽輪廓的解讀良好，精確比分的結果仍屬於低概率事件。我們會突出顯示主要的比分範圍作為參考；未命中精確賠率線並不會否定方向性回顧。
這是否改善了 AI 的記錄？
每場完成的比賽都會記錄在我們的驗證流程中。彙總的命中率和 CLV 研究會另行發布 — 本頁面為逐場比賽的審核記錄。

預測僅供參考。請負責任地投注並量力而行。過去的表現不保證未來的結果。

AI 比賽簡報

AI 比賽摘要

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 泰國甲級足球聯賽
  • Fixture: Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 12:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Nakhon Pathom 1.28 — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

歷史推薦

歷史決策: Monitor

結果: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

開賽前考慮的風險因素

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

最後更新

September 24, 2026 (UTC)

相關預測

查看即將到來的 泰國甲級足球聯賽 比賽 追蹤 Nakhon Pathom 下一場比賽預測 追蹤 Nakhon Ratchasima FC 下一場比賽預測 查看今日足球預測

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泰國甲級足球聯賽 泰國甲級足球聯賽 — 積分榜
# 球隊（TEAM） 出賽場次（MP） 勝（W） 平局（D） 輸（L） 積分（PTS）
1 Khon Kaen United 4 3 0 1 9
2 Uttaradit 4 2 2 0 8
3 Muang Loei United 4 2 1 1 7
4 Nong Bua Pitchaya 4 2 1 1 7
5 Chainat 4 2 1 1 7
6 Muangthong United 4 2 1 1 7
7 Satun 4 2 0 2 6
8 Kanchanaburi 4 1 3 0 6
9 Chiangmai United 4 2 0 2 6
10 Police Tero 4 2 0 2 6
11 Songkhla 4 1 2 1 5
12 Chanthaburi 4 1 1 2 4
13 Nakhon Pathom 4 0 4 0 4
14 Phrae United 4 1 1 2 4
15 Esan Pattaya 4 1 1 2 4
16 Mahasarakham United 4 0 3 1 3
17 Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4 0 2 2 2
18 Kasetsart FC 4 0 1 3 1
# 球隊（TEAM） 出賽場次（MP） 進球（GS） 失球（GC） +/- 積分（PTS）
1 Satun 4 11 9 +2 6
2 Nong Bua Pitchaya 4 9 7 +2 7
3 Uttaradit 4 8 5 +3 8
4 Khon Kaen United 4 7 3 +4 9
5 Muang Loei United 4 6 2 +4 7
6 Kanchanaburi 4 6 4 +2 6
7 Songkhla 4 6 5 +1 5
8 Chiangmai United 4 5 4 +1 6
9 Chainat 4 5 5 0 7
10 Chanthaburi 4 5 5 0 4
11 Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4 5 7 -2 2
12 Police Tero 4 4 5 -1 6
13 Phrae United 4 4 5 -1 4
14 Nakhon Pathom 4 3 3 0 4
15 Muangthong United 4 3 4 -1 7
16 Mahasarakham United 4 3 6 -3 3
17 Esan Pattaya 4 1 6 -5 4
18 Kasetsart FC 4 0 6 -6 1