預測 / 足球 / 世界. 球會友誼賽 / 富勒姆 vs 斯圖加特

預測審核： 富勒姆 vs 斯圖加特 預測、賠率與AI投注建議

富勒姆 富勒姆
Aug 15, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.21
0 1.39
xG Accuracy: 64%
斯圖加特 斯圖加特

The model missed the final outcome (富勒姆 win 1–0).

The model had projected 斯圖加特 at 39.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

追蹤市場與全場比賽結果

預測評級 F

每行比較賽前模型傾向與全場比賽結果。

  • 市場 預測 結果 結果
  • 大小球2.5 小於2.5球 小於2.5球 (1 進球) ✔ 正確
  • 雙方進球 雙方進球 (BTTS) 是 否 ✖ 錯誤
  • 1X2 斯圖加特 富勒姆 ✖ 錯誤
  • 波膽洞察 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ 正確

模型與收盤市場

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices 富勒姆 higher than the statistical model.

最大概率差距: 富勒姆 -11.8 pp

結果 模型 收盤市場 差異 信號
富勒姆 31.2% 43.0% -11.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.3% 25.4% +3.8 pp Aligned
斯圖加特 39.6% 31.6% +8.0 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates 富勒姆's win probability at 43.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.2%, a difference of 11.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

全場比賽結束後，結果為 富勒姆 win 1–0。

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about 富勒姆 than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

赛后洞察

有效之处

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

失误之处

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned 斯圖加特; match finished 富勒姆

市场启示

The closing market differed from the model on 斯圖加特 by 11.8 percentage points (51.4% vs model 39.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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預測時間線

此預測如何從預測轉變為全場回顧。

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · 富勒姆 31.2% · Draw 29.3% · 斯圖加特 39.6%
    • xG · 富勒姆 1.21 — 斯圖加特 1.39
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · 富勒姆 2.13 · Draw 3.60 · 斯圖加特 2.90
    • Implied 1X2 · 富勒姆 43.0% · Draw 25.4% · 斯圖加特 31.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · 富勒姆 2.13 · Draw 3.60 · 斯圖加特 2.90
    • Implied 1X2 · 富勒姆 43.0% · Draw 25.4% · 斯圖加特 31.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result 富勒姆 win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

歷史快照

開賽時凍結 — 模型在比賽開始前的輸出。

歷史判決: Monitor
歷史決策 Monitor
結果 Missed
賽前指標（歷史背景）
預測可靠性 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
證據 ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

验证报告

Immutable Snapshot

预测时间: Aug 09, 2026 · 02:42 UTC 快照 ID: dp-3359871

收盘赔率 2.13
AI 公平赔率 —
CLV 待定
最终赛果 富勒姆 win · 富勒姆 1–0 斯圖加特
预测结果 ✖ Missed
决策评级 F

模型绩效

本场预测计入：

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

回顧常見問題

預測的準確性如何？
本頁面評估方向性市場（1X2、大小球 2.5、雙方進球）與全場比賽結果的對應情況。預測評級反映了這些追蹤市場中有多少與實際結果相符。
xG 準確性測量什麼？
xG 準確性比較模型賽前的預期進球數與實際比分 — 而非每個市場是否命中。即使方向性回顧表現強勁，xG 準確性得分也可能中等。
為什麼未能預測精確比分？
即使模型對比賽輪廓的解讀良好，精確比分的結果仍屬於低概率事件。我們會突出顯示主要的比分範圍作為參考；未命中精確賠率線並不會否定方向性回顧。
這是否改善了 AI 的記錄？
每場完成的比賽都會記錄在我們的驗證流程中。彙總的命中率和 CLV 研究會另行發布 — 本頁面為逐場比賽的審核記錄。

預測僅供參考。請負責任地投注並量力而行。過去的表現不保證未來的結果。

AI 比賽簡報

AI 比賽摘要

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 球會友誼賽
  • Fixture: 富勒姆 vs 斯圖加特
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.2% · Draw 29.3% · Away 39.6%
  • xG (showing): 富勒姆 1.21 — 斯圖加特 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.7%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

歷史推薦

歷史決策: Monitor

結果: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

開賽前考慮的風險因素

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

最後更新

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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