Betting Signal
- 模型表示
- 西班牙 58.7%
- 市場表示
- 西班牙 59.7%
- 差異
- 1.0 pp
- 狀態
- Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately
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OddsGPT Interpretation
The betting market strongly prefers 西班牙 (59.7%).
西班牙 — market direction supports the model lean.
模型與市場比較
最大差距
西班牙 -1.0 pp
市場對於西班牙的看法明顯比模型更為樂觀。
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
基於 Elo 調整的 Poisson 模擬生成。非莊家賠率。
How are win probabilities calculated?
Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.
Is this page betting advice?
No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.
What does xG / λ mean here?
λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.
Why are exact score probabilities low?
Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.
比賽階段: 已結束
決策生命周期
當前階段: 等待CLV
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預測已生成
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市場已比較進場 待處理
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驗證通過
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結束已記錄結束中 1.63
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CLV已評估CLV 待處理 等待CLV計算
