預測 / 足球 / 日本. 日本聯賽盃 / 鳥取飛翔 vs 大宫松鼠

預測審核： 鳥取飛翔 vs 大宫松鼠 預測、賠率與AI投注建議

鳥取飛翔 鳥取飛翔
Sep 02, 2026 - 10:00
3 1.28
1 1.32
xG Accuracy: 57%
大宫松鼠 大宫松鼠

The model missed the final outcome (鳥取飛翔 win 3–1).

The model had projected 大宫松鼠 at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

追蹤市場與全場比賽結果

預測評級 F

每行比較賽前模型傾向與全場比賽結果。

  • 市場 預測 結果 結果
  • 大小球2.5 小於2.5球 大於2.5球 (4 進球) ✖ 錯誤
  • 雙方進球 雙方進球 (BTTS) 是 是 ✔ 正確
  • 1X2 大宫松鼠 鳥取飛翔 ✖ 錯誤
  • 波膽洞察 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ 錯誤

模型與收盤市場

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices 大宫松鼠 higher than the statistical model.

最大概率差距: 大宫松鼠 -14.4 pp

結果 模型 收盤市場 差異 信號
鳥取飛翔 34.2% 24.9% +9.4 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 24.6% +5.0 pp Model Higher
大宫松鼠 36.1% 50.5% -14.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates 大宫松鼠's win probability at 50.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 14.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

全場比賽結束後，結果為 鳥取飛翔 win 3–1。

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about 大宫松鼠 than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

赛后洞察

有效之处

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

失误之处

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned 大宫松鼠; match finished 鳥取飛翔

市场启示

The closing market differed from the model on 大宫松鼠 by 14.4 percentage points (50.5% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

預測時間線

此預測如何從預測轉變為全場回顧。

  1. Sep 02, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · 鳥取飛翔 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · 大宫松鼠 36.1%
    • xG · 鳥取飛翔 1.28 — 大宫松鼠 1.32
  2. Sep 02, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · 鳥取飛翔 3.80 · Draw 3.84 · 大宫松鼠 1.87
    • Implied 1X2 · 鳥取飛翔 24.9% · Draw 24.6% · 大宫松鼠 50.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 02, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · 鳥取飛翔 3.80 · Draw 3.84 · 大宫松鼠 1.87
    • Implied 1X2 · 鳥取飛翔 24.9% · Draw 24.6% · 大宫松鼠 50.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 02, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result 鳥取飛翔 win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

歷史快照

開賽時凍結 — 模型在比賽開始前的輸出。

歷史判決: Monitor
歷史決策 Monitor
結果 Missed
賽前指標（歷史背景）
預測可靠性 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
證據 ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 27/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

验证报告

Immutable Snapshot

预测时间: Aug 27, 2026 · 01:43 UTC 快照 ID: dp-5619476

收盘赔率 1.87
AI 公平赔率 —
CLV 待定
最终赛果 鳥取飛翔 win · 鳥取飛翔 3–1 大宫松鼠
预测结果 ✖ Missed
决策评级 F

模型绩效

本场预测计入：

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

回顧常見問題

預測的準確性如何？
本頁面評估方向性市場（1X2、大小球 2.5、雙方進球）與全場比賽結果的對應情況。預測評級反映了這些追蹤市場中有多少與實際結果相符。
xG 準確性測量什麼？
xG 準確性比較模型賽前的預期進球數與實際比分 — 而非每個市場是否命中。即使方向性回顧表現強勁，xG 準確性得分也可能中等。
為什麼未能預測精確比分？
即使模型對比賽輪廓的解讀良好，精確比分的結果仍屬於低概率事件。我們會突出顯示主要的比分範圍作為參考；未命中精確賠率線並不會否定方向性回顧。
這是否改善了 AI 的記錄？
每場完成的比賽都會記錄在我們的驗證流程中。彙總的命中率和 CLV 研究會另行發布 — 本頁面為逐場比賽的審核記錄。

預測僅供參考。請負責任地投注並量力而行。過去的表現不保證未來的結果。

AI 比賽簡報

AI 比賽摘要

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 日本聯賽盃
  • Fixture: 鳥取飛翔 vs 大宫松鼠
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-02 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): 鳥取飛翔 1.28 — 大宫松鼠 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

歷史推薦

歷史決策: Monitor

結果: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

開賽前考慮的風險因素

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

最後更新

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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