預測 / 足球 / 沙烏地阿拉伯. 沙特國王盃 / 阿爾祖爾菲 vs 利雅得

預測審核： 阿爾祖爾菲 vs 利雅得 預測、賠率與AI投注建議

阿爾祖爾菲 阿爾祖爾菲
Aug 17, 2026 - 16:15
0 1.36
2 1.24
xG Accuracy: 56%
利雅得 利雅得

The model missed the final outcome (利雅得 win 0–2).

The model had projected 阿爾祖爾菲 at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

追蹤市場與全場比賽結果

預測評級 F

每行比較賽前模型傾向與全場比賽結果。

  • 市場 預測 結果 結果
  • 大小球2.5 小於2.5球 小於2.5球 (2 進球) ✔ 正確
  • 雙方進球 雙方進球 (BTTS) 是 否 ✖ 錯誤
  • 1X2 阿爾祖爾菲 利雅得 ✖ 錯誤
  • 波膽洞察 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ 錯誤

模型與收盤市場

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices 利雅得 higher than the statistical model.

最大概率差距: 利雅得 -25.6 pp

結果 模型 收盤市場 差異 信號
阿爾祖爾菲 38.0% 20.2% +17.8 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 21.8% +7.8 pp Model Higher
利雅得 32.4% 58.0% -25.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates 利雅得's win probability at 58.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 25.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

全場比賽結束後，結果為 利雅得 win 0–2。

赛后洞察

有效之处

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

失误之处

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned 阿爾祖爾菲; match finished 利雅得

市场启示

The closing market differed from the model on 阿爾祖爾菲 by 25.6 percentage points (63.6% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

預測時間線

此預測如何從預測轉變為全場回顧。

  1. Aug 17, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · 阿爾祖爾菲 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · 利雅得 32.4%
    • xG · 阿爾祖爾菲 1.36 — 利雅得 1.24
  2. Aug 17, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · 阿爾祖爾菲 4.59 · Draw 4.26 · 利雅得 1.60
    • Implied 1X2 · 阿爾祖爾菲 20.2% · Draw 21.8% · 利雅得 58.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 17, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · 阿爾祖爾菲 4.59 · Draw 4.26 · 利雅得 1.60
    • Implied 1X2 · 阿爾祖爾菲 20.2% · Draw 21.8% · 利雅得 58.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 17, 2026 · 16:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result 利雅得 win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

歷史快照

開賽時凍結 — 模型在比賽開始前的輸出。

歷史判決: Cautious / Wait

歷史標籤: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

歷史決策 Wait
結果 Missed
賽前指標（歷史背景）
預測可靠性 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (26 pp)
證據 ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

验证报告

Immutable Snapshot

预测时间: Aug 11, 2026 · 02:15 UTC 快照 ID: dp-3618894

收盘赔率 1.6
AI 公平赔率 —
CLV 待定
最终赛果 利雅得 win · 阿爾祖爾菲 0–2 利雅得
预测结果 ✖ Missed
决策评级 F

模型绩效

本场预测计入：

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

回顧常見問題

預測的準確性如何？
本頁面評估方向性市場（1X2、大小球 2.5、雙方進球）與全場比賽結果的對應情況。預測評級反映了這些追蹤市場中有多少與實際結果相符。
xG 準確性測量什麼？
xG 準確性比較模型賽前的預期進球數與實際比分 — 而非每個市場是否命中。即使方向性回顧表現強勁，xG 準確性得分也可能中等。
為什麼未能預測精確比分？
即使模型對比賽輪廓的解讀良好，精確比分的結果仍屬於低概率事件。我們會突出顯示主要的比分範圍作為參考；未命中精確賠率線並不會否定方向性回顧。
這是否改善了 AI 的記錄？
每場完成的比賽都會記錄在我們的驗證流程中。彙總的命中率和 CLV 研究會另行發布 — 本頁面為逐場比賽的審核記錄。

預測僅供參考。請負責任地投注並量力而行。過去的表現不保證未來的結果。

AI 比賽簡報

AI 比賽摘要

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 沙特國王盃
  • Fixture: 阿爾祖爾菲 vs 利雅得
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-17 16:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): 阿爾祖爾菲 1.36 — 利雅得 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

歷史推薦

歷史決策: Wait

結果: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

開賽前考慮的風險因素

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

最後更新

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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