預測 / 足球 / 瓜地馬拉. 危地馬拉國家聯賽 / 奧羅拉 vs 馬奎恩塞

預測審核： 奧羅拉 vs 馬奎恩塞 預測、賠率與AI投注建議

奧羅拉 奧羅拉
Sep 19, 2026 - 21:00
1 1.27
0 1.33
xG Accuracy: 64%
馬奎恩塞 馬奎恩塞

The model missed the final outcome (奧羅拉 win 1–0).

The model had projected 馬奎恩塞 at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

追蹤市場與全場比賽結果

預測評級 F

每行比較賽前模型傾向與全場比賽結果。

  • 市場 預測 結果 結果
  • 大小球2.5 大於2.5球 小於2.5球 (1 進球) ✖ 錯誤
  • 雙方進球 雙方進球 (BTTS) 是 否 ✖ 錯誤
  • 1X2 馬奎恩塞 奧羅拉 ✖ 錯誤
  • 波膽洞察 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ 正確

模型與收盤市場

Strong Disagreement

The model rates 馬奎恩塞 considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

最大概率差距: 馬奎恩塞 +11.3 pp

結果 模型 收盤市場 差異 信號
奧羅拉 33.8% 44.7% -10.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 30.1% -0.4 pp Aligned
馬奎恩塞 36.6% 25.2% +11.3 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates 馬奎恩塞's win probability at 36.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.2%, a difference of 11.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

全場比賽結束後，結果為 奧羅拉 win 1–0。

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on 馬奎恩塞.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

赛后洞察

有效之处

  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

失误之处

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

市场启示

The closing market differed from the model on 馬奎恩塞 by 11.3 percentage points (25.3% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

預測時間線

此預測如何從預測轉變為全場回顧。

  1. Sep 19, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · 奧羅拉 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · 馬奎恩塞 36.6%
    • xG · 奧羅拉 1.27 — 馬奎恩塞 1.33
  2. Sep 19, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · 奧羅拉 2.05 · Draw 3.05 · 馬奎恩塞 3.63
    • Implied 1X2 · 奧羅拉 44.7% · Draw 30.1% · 馬奎恩塞 25.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 19, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · 奧羅拉 2.05 · Draw 3.05 · 馬奎恩塞 3.63
    • Implied 1X2 · 奧羅拉 44.7% · Draw 30.1% · 馬奎恩塞 25.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 19, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result 奧羅拉 win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

歷史快照

開賽時凍結 — 模型在比賽開始前的輸出。

歷史判決: Monitor
歷史決策 Monitor
結果 Missed
賽前指標（歷史背景）
預測可靠性 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
證據 ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 15/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

验证报告

Immutable Snapshot

预测时间: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:44 UTC 快照 ID: dp-8710030

收盘赔率 3.63
AI 公平赔率 —
CLV 待定
最终赛果 奧羅拉 win · 奧羅拉 1–0 馬奎恩塞
预测结果 ✖ Missed
决策评级 F

模型绩效

本场预测计入：

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

回顧常見問題

預測的準確性如何？
本頁面評估方向性市場（1X2、大小球 2.5、雙方進球）與全場比賽結果的對應情況。預測評級反映了這些追蹤市場中有多少與實際結果相符。
xG 準確性測量什麼？
xG 準確性比較模型賽前的預期進球數與實際比分 — 而非每個市場是否命中。即使方向性回顧表現強勁，xG 準確性得分也可能中等。
為什麼未能預測精確比分？
即使模型對比賽輪廓的解讀良好，精確比分的結果仍屬於低概率事件。我們會突出顯示主要的比分範圍作為參考；未命中精確賠率線並不會否定方向性回顧。
這是否改善了 AI 的記錄？
每場完成的比賽都會記錄在我們的驗證流程中。彙總的命中率和 CLV 研究會另行發布 — 本頁面為逐場比賽的審核記錄。

預測僅供參考。請負責任地投注並量力而行。過去的表現不保證未來的結果。

AI 比賽簡報

AI 比賽摘要

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 危地馬拉國家聯賽
  • Fixture: 奧羅拉 vs 馬奎恩塞
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 21:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): 奧羅拉 1.27 — 馬奎恩塞 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.9%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

歷史推薦

歷史決策: Monitor

結果: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

開賽前考慮的風險因素

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

最後更新

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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