預測 / 足球 / 瓜地馬拉. 危地馬拉國家聯賽 / 謝拉胡 vs 科班帝國

預測審核： 謝拉胡 vs 科班帝國 預測、賠率與AI投注建議

謝拉胡 謝拉胡
Sep 11, 2026 - 02:00
0 1.40
0 1.20
xG Accuracy: 49%
科班帝國 科班帝國

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected 謝拉胡 at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

追蹤市場與全場比賽結果

預測評級 F

每行比較賽前模型傾向與全場比賽結果。

  • 市場 預測 結果 結果
  • 大小球2.5 小於2.5球 小於2.5球 (0 進球) ✔ 正確
  • 雙方進球 雙方進球 (BTTS) 是 否 ✖ 錯誤
  • 1X2 謝拉胡 和局 ✖ 錯誤
  • 波膽洞察 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ 錯誤

模型與收盤市場

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices 謝拉胡 higher than the statistical model.

最大概率差距: 謝拉胡 -24.5 pp

結果 模型 收盤市場 差異 信號
謝拉胡 39.9% 64.4% -24.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 21.5% +8.0 pp Model Higher
科班帝國 30.6% 14.1% +16.5 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates 謝拉胡's win probability at 64.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 24.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

全場比賽結束後，結果為 Draw 0–0。

赛后洞察

有效之处

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

失误之处

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned 謝拉胡; match finished Draw

市场启示

The closing market differed from the model on 謝拉胡 by 24.5 percentage points (64.4% vs model 39.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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預測時間線

此預測如何從預測轉變為全場回顧。

  1. Sep 11, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · 謝拉胡 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · 科班帝國 30.6%
    • xG · 謝拉胡 1.40 — 科班帝國 1.20
  2. Sep 11, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · 謝拉胡 1.41 · Draw 4.22 · 科班帝國 6.45
    • Implied 1X2 · 謝拉胡 64.4% · Draw 21.5% · 科班帝國 14.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 11, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · 謝拉胡 1.41 · Draw 4.22 · 科班帝國 6.45
    • Implied 1X2 · 謝拉胡 64.4% · Draw 21.5% · 科班帝國 14.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 11, 2026 · 02:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

歷史快照

開賽時凍結 — 模型在比賽開始前的輸出。

歷史判決: Cautious / Wait

歷史標籤: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

歷史決策 Wait
結果 Missed
賽前指標（歷史背景）
預測可靠性 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (24 pp)
證據 ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

验证报告

Immutable Snapshot

预测时间: Sep 05, 2026 · 00:59 UTC 快照 ID: dp-7019037

收盘赔率 1.41
AI 公平赔率 —
CLV 待定
最终赛果 Draw · 謝拉胡 0–0 科班帝國
预测结果 ✖ Missed
决策评级 F

模型绩效

本场预测计入：

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

回顧常見問題

預測的準確性如何？
本頁面評估方向性市場（1X2、大小球 2.5、雙方進球）與全場比賽結果的對應情況。預測評級反映了這些追蹤市場中有多少與實際結果相符。
xG 準確性測量什麼？
xG 準確性比較模型賽前的預期進球數與實際比分 — 而非每個市場是否命中。即使方向性回顧表現強勁，xG 準確性得分也可能中等。
為什麼未能預測精確比分？
即使模型對比賽輪廓的解讀良好，精確比分的結果仍屬於低概率事件。我們會突出顯示主要的比分範圍作為參考；未命中精確賠率線並不會否定方向性回顧。
這是否改善了 AI 的記錄？
每場完成的比賽都會記錄在我們的驗證流程中。彙總的命中率和 CLV 研究會另行發布 — 本頁面為逐場比賽的審核記錄。

預測僅供參考。請負責任地投注並量力而行。過去的表現不保證未來的結果。

AI 比賽簡報

AI 比賽摘要

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 危地馬拉國家聯賽
  • Fixture: 謝拉胡 vs 科班帝國
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-11 02:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
  • xG (showing): 謝拉胡 1.4 — 科班帝國 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

歷史推薦

歷史決策: Wait

結果: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

開賽前考慮的風險因素

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

最後更新

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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