預測審核： Estrela do Norte vs Rive 預測、賠率與AI投注建議

Estrela do Norte

Aug 08, 2026 - 19:00

1 1.32

1 1.28

xG Accuracy: 85%

⚽

Rive

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Estrela do Norte at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

追蹤市場與全場比賽結果

預測評級 C

每行比較賽前模型傾向與全場比賽結果。

市場預測結果結果
大小球2.5 小於2.5球小於2.5球 (2 進球) ✔ 正確
雙方進球雙方進球 (BTTS) 是是 ✔ 正確
1X2 Estrela do Norte 和局 ✖ 錯誤
波膽洞察 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ 正確

赛后洞察

有效之处

Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

失误之处

1X2: model leaned Estrela do Norte; match finished Draw

市场启示

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

預測時間線

此預測如何從預測轉變為全場回顧。

Aug 02, 2026 · 02:46 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Estrela do Norte 1.32 — Rive 1.28
Aug 08, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

歷史快照

開賽時凍結 — 模型在比賽開始前的輸出。

歷史判決: Observe

歷史決策 No Primary Bet

結果 Missed

賽前指標（歷史背景）

預測可靠性 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Pending

證據 ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation pending

Market Compatibility 100/100

Betting Confidence 59/100

验证报告

Immutable Snapshot

预测时间: Aug 02, 2026 · 02:46 UTC 快照 ID: dp-2829280

收盘赔率待定

AI 公平赔率 —

CLV 待定

最终赛果 Draw · Estrela do Norte 1–1 Rive

预测结果 ✖ Missed

决策评级 C

模型绩效

本场预测计入：

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

回顧常見問題

預測的準確性如何？: 本頁面評估方向性市場（1X2、大小球 2.5、雙方進球）與全場比賽結果的對應情況。預測評級反映了這些追蹤市場中有多少與實際結果相符。
xG 準確性測量什麼？: xG 準確性比較模型賽前的預期進球數與實際比分 — 而非每個市場是否命中。即使方向性回顧表現強勁，xG 準確性得分也可能中等。
為什麼未能預測精確比分？: 即使模型對比賽輪廓的解讀良好，精確比分的結果仍屬於低概率事件。我們會突出顯示主要的比分範圍作為參考；未命中精確賠率線並不會否定方向性回顧。
這是否改善了 AI 的記錄？: 每場完成的比賽都會記錄在我們的驗證流程中。彙總的命中率和 CLV 研究會另行發布 — 本頁面為逐場比賽的審核記錄。

預測僅供參考。請負責任地投注並量力而行。過去的表現不保證未來的結果。

AI 比賽簡報

AI 比賽摘要

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Capixaba B
Fixture: Estrela do Norte vs Rive
Kickoff: 2026-08-08 19:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Estrela do Norte 1.32 — Rive 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

歷史推薦

歷史決策: No Primary Bet

結果: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

開賽前考慮的風險因素

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

最後更新

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Capixaba B — 積分榜

#	球隊（TEAM）	出賽場次（MP）	勝（W）	平局（D）	輸（L）	積分（PTS）
1	Estrela do Norte	8	7	1	0	22
2	Linhares	8	6	0	2	18
3	Rive	8	5	2	1	17
4	Audax São Mateus	8	5	1	2	16
5	GEL	8	3	3	2	12
6	Doze	8	3	1	4	10
7	Tupy	8	3	1	4	10
8	Sport Brasil ES	8	3	0	5	9
9	CTE Colatina	8	0	1	7	1
10	Pinheiros	8	0	0	8	0

#	球隊（TEAM）	出賽場次（MP）	進球（GS）	失球（GC）	+/-	積分（PTS）
1	Linhares	8	22	2	+20	18
2	Estrela do Norte	8	21	1	+20	22
3	Audax São Mateus	8	15	5	+10	16
4	Rive	8	14	7	+7	17
5	GEL	8	10	7	+3	12
6	Sport Brasil ES	8	10	9	+1	9
7	Doze	8	8	13	-5	10
8	Tupy	8	8	14	-6	10
9	Pinheiros	8	5	27	-22	0
10	CTE Colatina	8	1	29	-28	1