預測 / 足球 / 科威特. Division 1 / Shamiya vs Yarmouk

預測審核： Shamiya vs Yarmouk 預測、賠率與AI投注建議

Shamiya Shamiya
Aug 02, 2026 - 17:45
3 1.12
0 1.79
xG Accuracy: 36%
Yarmouk Yarmouk

The model missed the final outcome (Shamiya win 3–0).

The model had projected Yarmouk at 51.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

追蹤市場與全場比賽結果

預測評級 F

每行比較賽前模型傾向與全場比賽結果。

  • 市場 預測 結果 結果
  • 大小球2.5 大於2.5球 大於2.5球 (3 進球) ✔ 正確
  • 雙方進球 雙方進球 (BTTS) 是 否 ✖ 錯誤
  • 1X2 Yarmouk Shamiya ✖ 錯誤
  • 波膽洞察 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ 錯誤

模型與收盤市場

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Yarmouk higher than the statistical model.

最大概率差距: Yarmouk -23.6 pp

結果 模型 收盤市場 差異 信號
Shamiya 22.3% 9.3% +12.9 pp Model Edge
Draw 26.1% 15.4% +10.7 pp Model Edge
Yarmouk 51.6% 75.3% -23.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Yarmouk's win probability at 75.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 51.6%, a difference of 23.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

全場比賽結束後，結果為 Shamiya win 3–0。

赛后洞察

有效之处

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.91) — 3 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

失误之处

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Yarmouk; match finished Shamiya

市场启示

The closing market differed from the model on Yarmouk by 23.6 percentage points (75.2% vs model 51.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

預測時間線

此預測如何從預測轉變為全場回顧。

  1. Aug 02, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Shamiya 22.3% · Draw 26.1% · Yarmouk 51.6%
    • xG · Shamiya 1.12 — Yarmouk 1.79
  2. Aug 02, 2026 · 17:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Shamiya 9.42 · Draw 5.72 · Yarmouk 1.17
    • Implied 1X2 · Shamiya 9.3% · Draw 15.4% · Yarmouk 75.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 02, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Shamiya 9.42 · Draw 5.72 · Yarmouk 1.17
    • Implied 1X2 · Shamiya 9.3% · Draw 15.4% · Yarmouk 75.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 02, 2026 · 17:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Shamiya win · 3–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

歷史快照

開賽時凍結 — 模型在比賽開始前的輸出。

歷史判決: Cautious / Wait

歷史標籤: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

歷史決策 Wait
結果 Missed
賽前指標（歷史背景）
預測可靠性 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (24 pp)
證據 ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

验证报告

Immutable Snapshot

预测时间: Jul 27, 2026 · 01:47 UTC 快照 ID: dp-1953926

收盘赔率 1.17
AI 公平赔率 —
CLV 待定
最终赛果 Shamiya win · Shamiya 3–0 Yarmouk
预测结果 ✖ Missed
决策评级 F

模型绩效

本场预测计入：

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

回顧常見問題

預測的準確性如何？
本頁面評估方向性市場（1X2、大小球 2.5、雙方進球）與全場比賽結果的對應情況。預測評級反映了這些追蹤市場中有多少與實際結果相符。
xG 準確性測量什麼？
xG 準確性比較模型賽前的預期進球數與實際比分 — 而非每個市場是否命中。即使方向性回顧表現強勁，xG 準確性得分也可能中等。
為什麼未能預測精確比分？
即使模型對比賽輪廓的解讀良好，精確比分的結果仍屬於低概率事件。我們會突出顯示主要的比分範圍作為參考；未命中精確賠率線並不會否定方向性回顧。
這是否改善了 AI 的記錄？
每場完成的比賽都會記錄在我們的驗證流程中。彙總的命中率和 CLV 研究會另行發布 — 本頁面為逐場比賽的審核記錄。

預測僅供參考。請負責任地投注並量力而行。過去的表現不保證未來的結果。

AI 比賽簡報

AI 比賽摘要

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Division 1
  • Fixture: Shamiya vs Yarmouk
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-02 17:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 22.3% · Draw 26.1% · Away 51.6%
  • xG (showing): Shamiya 1.12 — Yarmouk 1.79 (total xG ≈ 2.91)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 44.4% · Over 2.5 55.6%); BTTS Yes (Yes 57.5% · No 42.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 57.5% · No 42.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.9%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

歷史推薦

歷史決策: Wait

結果: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

開賽前考慮的風險因素

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

最後更新

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

相關預測

查看即將到來的 Division 1 比賽 追蹤 Shamiya 下一場比賽預測 追蹤 Yarmouk 下一場比賽預測 查看今日足球預測

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Division 1 Division 1 — 積分榜
# 球隊（TEAM） 出賽場次（MP） 勝（W） 平局（D） 輸（L） 積分（PTS）
1 蘇萊比哈特 21 13 5 3 44
2 薩赫爾 21 13 5 3 44
3 Yarmouk 21 13 4 4 43
4 Al Jazira 21 11 5 5 38
5 Khaitan 21 7 6 8 27
6 Burgan 21 5 8 8 23
7 Shamiya 21 3 1 17 10
8 Sporty 21 2 0 19 6
# 球隊（TEAM） 出賽場次（MP） 進球（GS） 失球（GC） +/- 積分（PTS）
1 Yarmouk 21 42 20 +22 43
2 Al Jazira 21 41 24 +17 38
3 蘇萊比哈特 21 38 16 +22 44
4 薩赫爾 21 35 16 +19 44
5 Burgan 21 26 30 -4 23
6 Khaitan 21 23 20 +3 27
7 Shamiya 21 19 63 -44 10
8 Sporty 21 14 49 -35 6