우루과이 vs 카보베르데

우루과이

Jun 21, 2026 - 22:00

2 1.90

2 0.80

카보베르데

Betting Signal

모델이 말하길: 우루과이 61.8%
시장은 말한다: 우루과이 67.8%
차이점: 6.0 pp
상태: Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately

OddsGPT Interpretation

The betting market strongly prefers 우루과이 (67.8%).

우루과이 — market direction supports the model lean.

모델 대 시장 비교

우루과이

61.8% vs 67.8%

-6.0 pp

Draw

24.3% vs 22.19%

+2.1 pp

카보베르데

13.9% vs 10.01%

+3.9 pp

가장 큰 격차

우루과이 -6.0 pp

시장은 모델보다 우루과이에 대해 훨씬 더 낙관적입니다.

Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

AI 예측

우루과이 61.8%

Draw 24.3%

카보베르데 13.9%

Elo 조정된 포아송 시뮬레이션에서 생성되었습니다. 북메이커 확률이 아닙니다.

전체 모델 데이터 표시

포아송 골 라인 확률

라인	오버	언더
0.5	91.9%	8.1%
1.5	76.5%	23.5%
2.5	50.6%	49.4%
3.5	28.6%	71.4%
4.5	13.7%	86.3%

경기 기대치

오버 2.5골

50.6%

Balanced

언더 2.5골

49.4%

양 팀 득점 여부

48.3%

Balanced

클린시트 가능성 높음

51.7%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 48.3% · No 51.7% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

가장 가능성 높은 스코어라인

스코어	확률
2-0	12.1%
1-1	11.6%
1-0	11.4%
2-1	9.7%
0-0	8.1%

Top Poisson cell: 2-0 at 12.1% (exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ

How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

경기 단계: 완성된

결정 수명주기

현재 단계: CLV를 기다리는 중

예측 생성됨
시장 비교됨

진입 대기 중
검증 통과
마감 기록됨

마감 1.44
CLV 평가됨

CLV 대기 중 CLV 계산 대기 중

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