Yambol 1915 vs Nesebar Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Yambol 1915

May 09, 2026 - 15:00

1 1.45

3 1.25

xG Accuracy: 55%

Nesebar

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 draw Nesebar ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 1-3 1-3 ✔ Correct

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AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Third League - Southeast
Fixture: Yambol 1915 vs Nesebar
Kickoff: 2026-05-09 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
xG (showing): Yambol 1915 1.45 — Nesebar 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 39.0% · Over 2.5 61.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 72.7% · No 27.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 72.7% · No 27.3%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.0%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Best Bet + Reason

No clear +EV headline on this snapshot.

The cards may still show value leans (e.g. a preferred Under or a BTTS side) where prices are inefficient or incomplete — that is not the same as a positive-EV ticket at the configured threshold.

Re-check after material price moves; edges appear and disappear with liquidity.

FAQ

When would a headline +EV return?

When odds move enough that implied probabilities drop relative to the same model snapshot, or when more book prices arrive so EV can be computed reliably — then re-run the pipeline.

Why is there no “best bet” on this page?

The headline engine uses a minimum +EV threshold (e.g. 2%) for a default pick. A line can still show tiny +EV that fails that bar — we still call it no default bet so readers do not over-size thin edges.

Should I still read the 1X2 card?

Yes — it shows whether any winner price clears value. Here it often explains why there is no headline: probabilities can be clustered while prices already embed that uncertainty.

What do the grey “lean” labels mean then?

They summarise where the model tilts (e.g. Under 2.5 or BTTS No) without claiming a positive economic edge. Use them as context; size to zero unless you deliberately accept discretionary risk.

Risk Factors

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 22, 2026 (UTC)

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Third League - Southeast — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Nesebar	34	27	4	3	85
2	Maritsa Plovdiv	34	22	6	6	72
3	Neftochimic Burgas	34	19	8	7	65
4	Yambol 1915	34	18	6	10	60
5	Levski Karlovo	34	18	5	11	59
6	Maritsa Milevo	34	16	8	10	56
7	Spartak Plovdiv	34	14	9	11	51
8	Sayana Haskovo	34	14	7	13	49
9	Zagorets	34	13	10	11	49
10	Sozopol	34	14	6	14	48
11	Rozova dolina	35	14	6	15	48
12	Rodopa Smolyan	34	13	4	17	43
13	Gigant Saedinenie	34	12	5	17	41
14	Atletik Kuklen	35	12	3	20	39
15	Sekirovo Rakovski	34	9	8	17	35
16	Dimitrovgrad	34	10	5	19	35
17	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	34	9	6	19	33
18	Rakovski 2011	34	8	3	23	27
19	Asenovets	34	5	5	24	20

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Nesebar	34	104	19	+85	85
2	Maritsa Plovdiv	34	80	36	+44	72
3	Yambol 1915	34	63	37	+26	60
4	Maritsa Milevo	34	60	30	+30	56
5	Levski Karlovo	34	59	50	+9	59
6	Spartak Plovdiv	34	59	53	+6	51
7	Neftochimic Burgas	34	51	34	+17	65
8	Zagorets	34	49	47	+2	49
9	Gigant Saedinenie	34	49	59	-10	41
10	Sayana Haskovo	34	48	46	+2	49
11	Rodopa Smolyan	34	47	65	-18	43
12	Sozopol	34	45	37	+8	48
13	Rozova dolina	35	43	48	-5	48
14	Rakovski 2011	34	43	85	-42	27
15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	34	42	48	-6	33
16	Dimitrovgrad	34	40	75	-35	35
17	Atletik Kuklen	35	40	76	-36	39
18	Sekirovo Rakovski	34	28	48	-20	35
19	Asenovets	34	25	82	-57	20