Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL A / Loko Vltavín vs Táborsko II

Loko Vltavín vs Táborsko II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Loko Vltavín Loko Vltavín
May 20, 2026 - 15:00
1.45
1.25
42% 26% 33%
Táborsko II Táborsko II
Betting Primary Pick (highest +EV)
BTTS No — Value
EV 34.6% Model 61.2%
Why The model prices Táborsko II (1X2) about 9.3 percentage points above closing implied — the main structural read vs. the line.

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Táborsko II (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Táborsko II (1X2) by about 9.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Loko Vltavín (1X2) 41.8 51.3 -9.6
Draw (1X2) 25.7 25.4 +0.2
Táborsko II (1X2) 32.6 23.2 +9.3
Over 2.5 goals 53.1 54.5 -1.4
Under 2.5 goals 46.9 45.5 +1.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Táborsko II (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.2%. The difference — about 9.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Loko Vltavín (1X2) 1.76 1.76 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.55 3.55 0.0
Táborsko II (1X2) 3.89 3.89 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.71 1.71 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.05 2.05 0.0
Over / Under 2.5 Lean
Over 2.5 53.1% · Under 2.5 46.9%
EV Over -9.2% · EV Under 0.37%
Value lean: Under 2.5
1X2 Pass
Loko Vltavín · Model 41.8%
implied 51.3%
EV: -18.3%
Best line EV (1X2) -0.3%
Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun
Most Likely
1-1
Probability 11.4%
Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.
Betting decision (model vs. market EV)
Value opportunity — At least one market shows estimated +EV at current best decimal odds (threshold: 2.0%).
Decision strength: 6.0 / 10
  • Primary line identified (+1.0)
  • Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)
  • Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
O/U 2.5: EV Over -9.2% · EV Under 0.37% (8 book pairs)
BTTS: EV Yes -35.98% · EV No 34.64%
Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.
OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.1.0(EV + Market Structure + Risk Adjustment) Check Odds at 1xBet

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 3. liga - CFL A
  • Fixture: Loko Vltavín vs Táborsko II
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-20 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Loko Vltavín 1.45 — Táborsko II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 61.2% · Implied: 43.3% · Probability edge: +17.9 pts · Est. EV: +34.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 38.8% · No 61.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Best Bet + Reason

Primary pick from the decision engine: BTTS No.

We separate probability edge (model minus implied, in points of probability) from estimated EV (economic edge at the best price shown on the page).

No pick is a guarantee; variance is especially large in scoreline markets.

FAQ

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

Risk Factors

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

  • Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
  • Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 21, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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3. liga - CFL A 3. liga - CFL A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kladno 28 19 5 4 62
2 Jiskra Domažlice 28 18 3 7 57
3 Viktoria Plzeň II 28 16 7 5 55
4 Písek 28 12 7 9 43
5 Králův Dvůr 29 13 4 12 43
6 Admira Praha 27 12 6 9 42
7 Slavia III 28 12 5 11 41
8 Aritma Praha 29 10 11 8 41
9 Loko Vltavín 28 12 4 12 40
10 České Budějovice II 28 9 10 9 37
11 Příbram II 27 11 2 14 35
12 Bohemians 1905 II 28 9 7 12 34
13 Dukla Praha II 27 10 4 13 34
14 Motorlet Praha 27 8 7 12 31
15 Sokol Hostouň 29 7 10 12 31
16 Petřín Plzeň 28 6 4 18 22
17 Táborsko II 29 4 4 21 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kladno 28 78 25 +53 62
2 Jiskra Domažlice 28 66 37 +29 57
3 Viktoria Plzeň II 28 65 43 +22 55
4 Králův Dvůr 29 52 51 +1 43
5 Bohemians 1905 II 28 51 50 +1 34
6 České Budějovice II 28 48 49 -1 37
7 Slavia III 28 47 40 +7 41
8 Dukla Praha II 27 42 48 -6 34
9 Písek 28 40 33 +7 43
10 Příbram II 27 40 50 -10 35
11 Aritma Praha 29 38 38 0 41
12 Admira Praha 27 36 34 +2 42
13 Petřín Plzeň 28 33 67 -34 22
14 Loko Vltavín 28 32 37 -5 40
15 Motorlet Praha 27 29 39 -10 31
16 Sokol Hostouň 29 28 41 -13 31
17 Táborsko II 29 25 68 -43 16
3. liga - CFL A Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL A Predictions
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