Velké Hamry vs Benátky nad Jizerou Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Velké Hamry

May 20, 2026 - 15:00

1.45

1.25

42% 26% 33%

Benátky nad Jizerou

Betting Primary Pick (highest +EV)

BTTS No — Value

EV 12.1% Model 46.7%

Not a dominant outcome (model probability is below 50% on this leg).

Secondary (balanced value): Over 2.5 (EV 8.2%) — 66.0% Model

Lower EV than primary, but with higher model probability (more “stable” when shown).

Why The model prices Over 2.5 goals about 9.3 percentage points above closing implied — the main structural read vs. the line.

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Velké Hamry (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 9.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Velké Hamry (1X2)	41.8	40.0	+1.7
Draw (1X2)	25.7	26.5	-0.8
Benátky nad Jizerou (1X2)	32.6	33.5	-0.9
Over 2.5 goals	66.0	56.7	+9.3
Under 2.5 goals	34.0	43.3	-9.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 66.0% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 56.7%. The difference — about 9.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Velké Hamry (1X2)	2.26	2.26
Draw (1X2)	3.42	3.42
Benátky nad Jizerou (1X2)	2.7	2.7
Over 2.5 goals	1.64	1.64
Under 2.5 goals	2.15	2.15

Over / Under 2.5 Best value (+EV)

Over 2.5 66.0% · Under 2.5 34.0%

EV Over 8.24% · EV Under -25.2%

Value lean: Over 2.5

1X2 Poor value

Velké Hamry · Model 41.8%

implied 40.0%

EV: -7.8%

Best line EV (1X2) -7.8%

Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun

Most Likely

1-1

Probability 9.6%

Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.

Betting decision (model vs. market EV)

Value opportunity — At least one market shows estimated +EV at current best decimal odds (threshold: 2.0%).

Decision strength: 6.5 / 10

Primary line identified (+1.0)
Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)
Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)

O/U 2.5: EV Over 8.24% · EV Under -25.2% (8 book pairs)
BTTS: EV Yes -17.39% · EV No 12.08%

Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.1.0(EV + Market Structure + Risk Adjustment) Check Odds at 1xBet

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: 3. liga - CFL B
Fixture: Velké Hamry vs Benátky nad Jizerou
Kickoff: 2026-05-20 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Velké Hamry 1.45 — Benátky nad Jizerou 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
Model: 46.7% · Implied: 39.7% · Probability edge: +7.0 pts · Est. EV: +12.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Best Bet + Reason

Primary pick from the decision engine: BTTS No.

If 1X2 looks tight, the engine may still find clearer structure in totals or BTTS — that is intentional.

No pick is a guarantee; variance is especially large in scoreline markets.

FAQ

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

Risk Factors

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 21, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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3. liga - CFL B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Kladno	28	19	5	4	62
2	Jiskra Domažlice	28	18	3	7	57
3	Viktoria Plzeň II	28	16	7	5	55
4	Písek	28	12	7	9	43
5	Králův Dvůr	29	13	4	12	43
6	Admira Praha	27	12	6	9	42
7	Slavia III	28	12	5	11	41
8	Aritma Praha	29	10	11	8	41
9	Loko Vltavín	28	12	4	12	40
10	České Budějovice II	28	9	10	9	37
11	Příbram II	27	11	2	14	35
12	Bohemians 1905 II	28	9	7	12	34
13	Dukla Praha II	27	10	4	13	34
14	Motorlet Praha	27	8	7	12	31
15	Sokol Hostouň	29	7	10	12	31
16	Petřín Plzeň	28	6	4	18	22
17	Táborsko II	29	4	4	21	16

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Kladno	28	78	25	+53	62
2	Jiskra Domažlice	28	66	37	+29	57
3	Viktoria Plzeň II	28	65	43	+22	55
4	Králův Dvůr	29	52	51	+1	43
5	Bohemians 1905 II	28	51	50	+1	34
6	České Budějovice II	28	48	49	-1	37
7	Slavia III	28	47	40	+7	41
8	Dukla Praha II	27	42	48	-6	34
9	Písek	28	40	33	+7	43
10	Příbram II	27	40	50	-10	35
11	Aritma Praha	29	38	38	0	41
12	Admira Praha	27	36	34	+2	42
13	Petřín Plzeň	28	33	67	-34	22
14	Loko Vltavín	28	32	37	-5	40
15	Motorlet Praha	27	29	39	-10	31
16	Sokol Hostouň	29	28	41	-13	31
17	Táborsko II	29	25	68	-43	16