Baník Souš vs Hradec Králové II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Baník Souš

May 23, 2026 - 15:00

1.45

1.25

42% 26% 33%

Hradec Králové II

Betting Primary Pick (highest +EV)

BTTS Yes — Value

EV 8.5% Model 70.9%

Steam vs. value

📈 Steam · Baník Souš ↑ +9.7% · 9/11 · 62 A

Market steam	Moderate
Current EV	Negative
Closing line pressure	High
Value remaining	Limited

Why The model prices Over 2.5 goals about 4.7 percentage points above closing implied — the main structural read vs. the line.

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Hradec Králové II (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 4.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Baník Souš (1X2)	41.8	47.7	-5.9
Draw (1X2)	25.7	21.4	+4.3
Hradec Králové II (1X2)	32.6	30.9	+1.6
Over 2.5 goals	63.0	58.3	+4.7
Under 2.5 goals	37.0	41.7	-4.7

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 63.0% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 58.3%. The difference — about 4.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)	Implied Δ (pp)
Baník Souš (1X2)	1.9	1.92	+0.1
Draw (1X2)	4.24	4.28	+0.1
Hradec Králové II (1X2)	2.91	2.96	-0.1
Over 2.5 goals	1.6	1.61	+0.1
Under 2.5 goals	2.23	2.25	-0.1

Over / Under 2.5 Lean

Over 2.5 63.0% · Under 2.5 37.0%

EV Over 1.43% · EV Under -11.2%

Value lean: Over 2.5

1X2 Poor value

Baník Souš · Model 41.8%

implied 47.7%

Main consensus market · EV: -14.7%

Best available bookmaker line: +-5.0% EV

Some outlier bookmaker prices may still show small theoretical value vs. the consensus line above.

Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun

Most Likely

1-1

Probability 10.2%

Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.

Betting decision (model vs. market EV)

Value opportunity — At least one market shows estimated +EV at current best decimal odds (threshold: 2.0%).

Decision strength: 5.0 / 10

Primary line identified (+1.0)
Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)

O/U 2.5: EV Over 1.43% · EV Under -11.2% (9 book pairs)
BTTS: EV Yes 8.48% · EV No -25.8%

Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.1.0(EV + Market Structure + Risk Adjustment) Check Odds at 1xBet

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: 3. liga - CFL B
Fixture: Baník Souš vs Hradec Králové II
Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Baník Souš 1.45 — Hradec Králové II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
Model: 70.9% · Implied: 59.6% · Probability edge: +11.3 pts · Est. EV: +14.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 70.9% · No 29.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.2%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Best Bet + Reason

Primary pick from the decision engine: BTTS Yes.

Model probability is compared to implied probability from odds to highlight a probability edge; EV uses the same model probability with the best decimal price tracked.

Only one modest +EV edge is highlighted here; size cautiously and re-check if odds move.

FAQ

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

Risk Factors

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 23, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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3. liga - CFL B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Kladno	29	20	5	4	65
2	Jiskra Domažlice	29	19	3	7	60
3	Viktoria Plzeň II	29	17	7	5	58
4	Písek	29	13	7	9	46
5	Králův Dvůr	30	13	4	13	43
6	Loko Vltavín	29	13	4	12	43
7	Admira Praha	29	12	6	11	42
8	Slavia III	29	12	5	12	41
9	Aritma Praha	30	10	11	9	41
10	České Budějovice II	29	10	10	9	40
11	Příbram II	29	12	2	15	38
12	Dukla Praha II	29	11	4	14	37
13	Bohemians 1905 II	29	9	8	12	35
14	Motorlet Praha	29	8	8	13	32
15	Sokol Hostouň	29	7	10	12	31
16	Petřín Plzeň	29	7	4	18	25
17	Táborsko II	30	4	4	22	16

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Kladno	29	79	25	+54	65
2	Viktoria Plzeň II	29	70	46	+24	58
3	Jiskra Domažlice	29	69	39	+30	60
4	České Budějovice II	29	54	52	+2	40
5	Bohemians 1905 II	29	53	52	+1	35
6	Králův Dvůr	30	53	54	-1	43
7	Slavia III	29	50	45	+5	41
8	Dukla Praha II	29	45	49	-4	37
9	Písek	29	43	34	+9	46
10	Příbram II	29	41	51	-10	38
11	Aritma Praha	30	40	41	-1	41
12	Admira Praha	29	39	43	-4	42
13	Petřín Plzeň	29	34	67	-33	25
14	Loko Vltavín	29	33	37	-4	43
15	Motorlet Praha	29	31	42	-11	32
16	Sokol Hostouň	29	28	41	-13	31
17	Táborsko II	30	25	69	-44	16