Predictions / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 / Aoiz vs Oberena

Aoiz vs Oberena Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Aoiz Aoiz
Jan 24, 2026 - 14:30
1.49
1.23
43% 25% 31%
Oberena Oberena

Forecast Assessment

Use caution

Favourite
Aoiz Balanced match
Model probability
43.2%
Market probability
52.8%
Market agreement
Weak
Validation
Warning

Summary:

Both lean Aoiz, but the market prices them higher (52.8% vs model 43.2%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move
Oberena ↓ -4.3% 4.45 → 4.26
Move type
⚠️ Volatile market
Steam Score
14C
Limited conviction
Market breadth
1/5
Phase
Volatile
Ref book
Pinnacle
CLV validation
Waiting for Close

Sharpest sharp-led move

Odds path — Oberena

↔ Gradual move over 4h

Open 4.53
Low / High 4.26
Current 4.26

Market Narrative

Volatile two-way pricing on Oberena (swing 4.53 → 4.26 → 4.26) — net 4.3% but intraday chop is elevated.

Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal.

Market Audit

Market agreement
Weak
Validation
Warning
Largest gap
Oberena +10.5 pp
Breadth
1/5
Current market activity
Oberena odds shortened ↓ -4.3%.

The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Oberena.

Confirmation remains limited (1/5 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Outcome Fair Market Edge
Aoiz 43.23% 52.77% -9.5 pp
Draw 25.46% 26.42% -1.0 pp
Oberena 31.32% 20.81% +10.5 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Final betting verdict

No default bet at standard thresholds — use leans for context only.

  • No value on 1X2 (Aoiz vs. current odds)
  • Model lean (not a default bet): Over 2.5
  • Model lean (not a default bet): BTTS Yes
Low conviction (4/10) — prefer smaller stakes or skip.
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1X2 ❌ No bet on 1X2 — no value vs. current odds on this market
Match: 43.2% Aoiz; Market consensus (3-way) 52.8%; Consensus-line EV -17.9%
No positive EV on tracked lines at current best odds.
⭐ Both Teams To Score Lean
Yes 56.4% · No 43.6%
Value lean: BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5 Pass
Over 2.5 51.1% · Under 2.5 48.9%
Value lean: Over 2.5
1X2 Poor value
Aoiz · Model probability 43.2%
Market consensus (3-way) 52.8%
Consensus-line EV: -17.9%
Best available bookmaker line: -1.8% EV
Some outlier bookmaker prices may still show small theoretical value vs. the consensus line above.
Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun
Most Likely
1-1
Probability 12.1%
Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.
Betting decision (model vs. market EV)
Lean only (below +EV threshold) — The model leans a side in at least one market, but no tracked line reaches the engine’s minimum EV threshold for a default stake suggestion.
Decision strength: 4.0 / 10
  • Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
O/U 2.5: insufficient book odds for EV
BTTS: insufficient book odds for EV
Should you bet on this match? No default bet: the model does not show +EV at the configured threshold on available lines.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Model validation warning

  1. Forecast Generated
  2. Market Compared
  3. Validation Passed
  4. Closing Recorded
  5. CLV Evaluated
Entry
4.35
Closing
Pending
CLV
Pending
OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.
Check Odds at 1xBet
How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Peña Sport 34 24 5 5 77
2 Pamplona 34 22 8 4 74
3 Izarra 34 16 13 5 61
4 Subiza 34 15 9 10 54
5 San Juan 34 12 16 6 52
6 Huarte 34 15 2 17 47
7 Beti Kozkor 34 12 10 12 46
8 Avance Ezcabarte 34 12 9 13 45
9 Cortes 34 13 5 16 44
10 Cirbonero 34 11 10 13 43
11 Txantrea 34 12 7 15 43
12 Valle Egüés 34 11 9 14 42
13 Bidezarra 34 10 10 15 39
14 Aoiz 34 9 9 16 36
15 Beti Onak 34 9 9 16 36
16 Ardoi 34 8 12 14 36
17 Oberena 34 7 11 17 32
18 Atlético Artajonés 34 7 10 17 31
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Pamplona 34 65 28 +37 74
2 Peña Sport 34 65 39 +26 77
3 Izarra 34 64 31 +33 61
4 Txantrea 34 52 67 -15 43
5 Beti Kozkor 34 51 44 +7 46
6 Huarte 34 49 47 +2 47
7 Valle Egüés 34 48 57 -9 42
8 Avance Ezcabarte 34 47 49 -2 45
9 Subiza 34 46 31 +15 54
10 Ardoi 34 46 56 -10 36
11 San Juan 34 43 28 +15 52
12 Aoiz 34 42 50 -8 36
13 Beti Onak 34 42 55 -13 36
14 Cirbonero 34 38 42 -4 43
15 Cortes 34 37 51 -14 44
16 Atlético Artajonés 34 36 61 -25 31
17 Bidezarra 34 34 40 -6 39
18 Oberena 34 32 61 -29 32
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