Predictions / Football / Bosnia. 1st League - FBiH / TOŠK Tešanj vs Stupčanica Olovo

TOŠK Tešanj vs Stupčanica Olovo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

TOŠK Tešanj TOŠK Tešanj
Mar 29, 2026 - 13:30
1.45
1.25
42% 26% 33%
Stupčanica Olovo Stupčanica Olovo

Forecast Assessment

Reliable forecast

Favourite
TOŠK Tešanj Balanced match
Model probability
41.8%
Market probability
32.1%
Market agreement
Moderate
Validation
Pass

Summary:

The model and market both lean TOŠK Tešanj, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Stupčanica Olovo remain plausible — this is a relatively open match.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move
TOŠK Tešanj ↑ +30.2% 2.15 → 2.8
Move type
⚡ Sharp-led move
Steam Score
59B
Moderate sharp signal
Market breadth
2/7
Phase
Sharp repricing
Ref book
Bet365
CLV validation
Waiting for Close

Largest move today

Odds path — TOŠK Tešanj

🐢 Slow drift over 16h

Open 2.95
Low / High 2.15
Current 2.80

Market Narrative

Bet365 led repricing on TOŠK Tešanj (30.2%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through.

Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited.

Market Audit

Market agreement
Moderate
Validation
Pass
Largest gap
TOŠK Tešanj +9.6 pp
Breadth
2/7
Current market activity
TOŠK Tešanj odds lengthened ↑ +30.2%.

Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on TOŠK Tešanj.

Confirmation remains limited (2/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.

Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on TOŠK Tešanj.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Outcome Fair Market Edge
TOŠK Tešanj 41.77% 32.14% +9.6 pp
Draw 25.67% 31.52% -5.8 pp
Stupčanica Olovo 32.57% 36.33% -3.8 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Final betting verdict

Different markets price efficiency differently — 1X2 can be a pass while goals markets still show edge.

  • No value on 1X2 (TOŠK Tešanj vs. current odds)
  • Possible value: Over 2.5 (+13.9% EV at best odds)
  • Possible value: BTTS Yes (+9.6% EV at best odds)
Moderate conviction (6.5/10) — one selective line, not a multi-market parlay.
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Betting Primary Pick (highest +EV)
Over 2.5 — Value
EV +13.9% Model 50.6%
Secondary (balanced value): BTTS Yes (EV +9.6%) — 56.2% Model
Lower EV than primary, but with higher model probability (more “stable” when shown).
Both Teams To Score Best value (+EV)
Yes 56.2% · No 43.8%
EV Yes +9.6% · EV No -20.7%
Value lean: BTTS Yes
1X2 Poor value
TOŠK Tešanj · Model probability 41.8%
Market consensus (3-way) 32.1%
Consensus-line EV: -0.5%
Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun
Most Likely
1-1
Probability 12.2%
Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.
Betting decision (model vs. market EV)
Value opportunity — At least one market shows estimated +EV at current best decimal odds (threshold: 2.0%).
Decision strength: 6.5 / 10
  • Primary line identified (+1.0)
  • Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)
  • Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
  • Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)
O/U 2.5: EV Over +13.9% · EV Under -18.5% (6 book pairs)
BTTS: EV Yes +9.6% · EV No -20.7%
Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Market monitoring

  1. Forecast Generated
  2. Market Compared
  3. Validation Passed
  4. Closing Recorded
  5. CLV Evaluated
Entry
2.77
Closing
Pending
CLV
Pending
OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.
Check Odds at 1xBet
How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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1st League - FBiH 1st League - FBiH — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Čelik 26 17 8 1 59
2 GOŠK Gabela 26 11 7 8 40
3 Jedinstvo Bihać 25 12 4 9 40
4 Stupčanica Olovo 25 11 5 9 38
5 Sloboda Tuzla 25 11 5 9 38
6 TOŠK Tešanj 25 10 7 8 37
7 Travnik 25 10 6 9 36
8 Radnik Hadžići 25 10 5 10 35
9 Igman Konjic 25 9 5 11 32
10 Budućnost Banovići 25 8 6 11 30
11 Bratstvo Gračanica 25 7 9 9 30
12 Tomislav 25 7 8 10 29
13 Vitez 25 8 3 14 27
14 Tuzla City 25 5 2 18 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Čelik 26 52 19 +33 59
2 Stupčanica Olovo 25 38 26 +12 38
3 GOŠK Gabela 26 36 26 +10 40
4 TOŠK Tešanj 25 35 28 +7 37
5 Travnik 25 34 25 +9 36
6 Tomislav 25 34 35 -1 29
7 Radnik Hadžići 25 33 36 -3 35
8 Sloboda Tuzla 25 32 29 +3 38
9 Budućnost Banovići 25 29 31 -2 30
10 Igman Konjic 25 28 42 -14 32
11 Jedinstvo Bihać 25 27 34 -7 40
12 Vitez 25 25 36 -11 27
13 Bratstvo Gračanica 25 24 26 -2 30
14 Tuzla City 25 20 54 -34 17
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