Quevilly vs Concarneau Sharp money alert: Concarneau ↑ +14.0% market move detected

Quevilly

Feb 12, 2026 - 18:00 2H

43% 25% 31%

Concarneau

Forecast Assessment

Use caution

Favourite: Quevilly Balanced match
Model probability: 43.2%
Market probability: 30.1%
Market agreement: Weak
Validation: Warning

Summary:

The model and market both lean Quevilly, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Concarneau remain plausible — this is a relatively open match.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move: Concarneau ↑ +14.0% 2.15 → 2.45
Move type: 📈 Steam
Steam Score: 74A
Strong sharp signal
Market breadth: 11/12
Phase: Sharp repricing
Ref book: Bet365
CLV validation: Waiting for Close

Largest move today

Odds path — Concarneau

🐢 Slow drift over 91h 33m

Open 2.51

Low / High 2.08

Current 2.45

Market Narrative

Multi-book steam on Concarneau (14.0%, 11/12) — aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.

Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation.

Market Audit

Market agreement: Weak
Validation: Warning
Largest gap: Quevilly +13.1 pp
Breadth: 11/12
Current market activity: Concarneau odds lengthened ↑ +14.0%.

The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Quevilly.

However, Concarneau has seen drift — odds lengthened by 14.0%, suggesting weakening support.

Drift away from Concarneau — odds lengthened by 14.0% (weakening support).

The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Outcome	Fair	Market	Edge
Quevilly	43.23%	30.1%	+13.1 pp
Draw	25.46%	31.8%	-6.3 pp
Concarneau	31.32%	38.1%	-6.8 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Final betting verdict

No default bet at standard thresholds — use leans for context only.

No value on 1X2 (Quevilly vs. current odds)
Model lean (not a default bet): Over 2.5
Model lean (not a default bet): BTTS Yes
Significant line move — see market context below.

Low conviction (4/10) — prefer smaller stakes or skip.

1X2 ❌ No bet on 1X2 — no value vs. current odds on this market

Match: 43.2% Quevilly; Market consensus (3-way) 30.1%; Consensus-line EV -0.2%

No positive EV on tracked lines at current best odds.

⭐ Both Teams To Score Lean

Yes 56.4% · No 43.6%

Value lean: BTTS Yes

1X2 Pass

Quevilly · Model probability 43.2%

Market consensus (3-way) 30.1%

Consensus-line EV: -0.2%

Over / Under 2.5 Pass

Over 2.5 51.1% · Under 2.5 48.9%

Value lean: Over 2.5

Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun

Most Likely

1-1

Probability 12.1%

Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.

Betting decision (model vs. market EV)

Lean only (below +EV threshold) — The model leans a side in at least one market, but no tracked line reaches the engine’s minimum EV threshold for a default stake suggestion.

Decision strength: 4.0 / 10

Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)

O/U 2.5: insufficient book odds for EV
BTTS: insufficient book odds for EV

Should you bet on this match? No default bet: the model does not show +EV at the configured threshold on available lines.

Concarneau market context before kickoff

📈 Steam on Concarneau

Odds move: 2.15 → 2.45 (↑ +14.0%)
Market breadth: 11/12
Steam score: 74 (A)
Current status: Market repriced — no remaining value detected on tracked lines at consensus.

Steam detected. Current price appears fully adjusted.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Model validation warning

Forecast Generated
Market Compared
Validation Passed
Closing Recorded
CLV Evaluated

Entry: 3.0
Closing: Pending
CLV: Pending

OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.

Check Odds at 1xBet

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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National 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Dijon	32	18	11	3	65
2	Sochaux	32	16	10	6	58
3	Rouen	32	14	13	5	55
4	Fleury 91	32	15	9	8	54
5	Versailles	32	15	8	9	53
6	Orleans	32	14	9	9	51
7	Le Puy Foot	32	12	11	9	47
8	Caen	32	8	16	8	40
9	Concarneau	32	8	14	10	38
10	Valenciennes	32	10	8	14	37
11	Aubagne	32	9	10	13	37
12	Villefranche	32	10	7	15	37
13	Quevilly	32	8	9	15	33
14	Gobelins	32	7	11	14	32
15	Bourg-en-bresse 01	32	8	7	17	31
16	Chateauroux	32	6	13	13	30
17	Stade Briochin	32	5	12	15	27

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Dijon	32	52	25	+27	65
2	Sochaux	32	51	26	+25	58
3	Fleury 91	32	47	30	+17	54
4	Versailles	32	46	34	+12	53
5	Le Puy Foot	32	45	38	+7	47
6	Rouen	32	43	29	+14	55
7	Orleans	32	42	42	0	51
8	Caen	32	39	34	+5	40
9	Aubagne	32	38	46	-8	37
10	Valenciennes	32	35	44	-9	37
11	Chateauroux	32	35	49	-14	30
12	Stade Briochin	32	35	50	-15	27
13	Villefranche	32	34	45	-11	37
14	Quevilly	32	34	45	-11	33
15	Concarneau	32	32	37	-5	38
16	Gobelins	32	26	41	-15	32
17	Bourg-en-bresse 01	32	25	44	-19	31