Predictions / Football / Switzerland. 1. Liga Promotion / Bavois vs Cham

Bavois vs Cham Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bavois Bavois
May 23, 2026 - 14:00
1.45
1.25
42% 26% 33%
Cham Cham
Best +EV (tracked markets)
Over 2.5 — Value
EV 3.9% Model 67.9%
Strongest +EV among tracked markets here; stricter Primary rules (e.g. minimum EV) were not met.
Both Teams To Score Poor value
Yes 65.9% · No 34.1%
EV Yes -1.15% · EV No -11.68%
Value lean: BTTS Yes
1X2 Poor value
Bavois · Model 41.8%
implied 46.9%
EV: -15.0%
Best line EV (1X2) -6.1%
Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun
Most Likely
1-1
Probability 9.2%
Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.
Betting decision (model vs. market EV)
Execution: No Primary / sized alternative at standard thresholds — other markets may still show +EV in the cards below.
Market insight: A small model–price gap may exist on marginal or high-variance legs — not a default bankroll bet; size down if you experiment. (Technical: at least one tracked line clears the +EV gate at ≥2.0% on best available odds — this does not imply a default bet.)
Decision strength: 4.0 / 10
  • Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
O/U 2.5: EV Over 3.89% · EV Under -23.6% (4 book pairs)
BTTS: EV Yes -1.15% · EV No -11.68%
Should you bet on this match? Discretionary read only: +EV may appear on thin or longshot legs; compare with your limits.
OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.1.0(EV + Market Structure + Risk Adjustment) Check Odds at 1xBet

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1. Liga Promotion
  • Fixture: Bavois vs Cham
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Bavois 1.45 — Cham 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 67.9% · Implied: 60.4% · Probability edge: +7.5 pts · Est. EV: +3.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 65.9% · No 34.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.2%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Best Bet + Reason

Best current value angle on the board — same leg as the “Best +EV” hero when Primary rules are not met: Over 2.5 goals.

We separate probability edge (model minus implied, in points of probability) from estimated EV (economic edge at the best price shown on the page).

No pick is a guarantee; variance is especially large in scoreline markets.

FAQ

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

Risk Factors

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

  • Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
  • Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 22, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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1. Liga Promotion 1. Liga Promotion — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 SC Kriens 32 23 4 5 73
2 Brühl 32 21 6 5 69
3 Biel-Bienne 32 18 7 7 61
4 Basel II 32 16 8 8 56
5 Young Boys II 32 15 9 8 54
6 Bavois 32 16 4 12 52
7 FC Schaffhausen 32 15 5 12 50
8 Cham 32 13 8 11 47
9 Bulle 32 13 6 13 45
10 Zürich II 32 11 8 13 41
11 Grand-Saconnex 32 10 10 12 40
12 Breitenrain 32 10 8 14 38
13 Luzern II 32 9 10 13 37
14 Kreuzlingen 32 8 12 12 36
15 Lugano II 32 8 10 14 34
16 Paradiso 32 6 11 15 29
17 Lausanne Sport II 32 8 3 21 27
18 Vevey Sports 32 1 5 26 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SC Kriens 32 96 42 +54 73
2 Brühl 32 87 43 +44 69
3 Luzern II 32 75 78 -3 37
4 Biel-Bienne 32 72 43 +29 61
5 Grand-Saconnex 32 68 64 +4 40
6 Young Boys II 32 66 47 +19 54
7 Bulle 32 64 61 +3 45
8 Basel II 32 62 47 +15 56
9 Bavois 32 60 49 +11 52
10 Cham 32 57 56 +1 47
11 Lausanne Sport II 32 56 81 -25 27
12 Zürich II 32 55 56 -1 41
13 FC Schaffhausen 32 47 44 +3 50
14 Paradiso 32 45 65 -20 29
15 Breitenrain 32 44 47 -3 38
16 Kreuzlingen 32 42 61 -19 36
17 Lugano II 32 42 72 -30 34
18 Vevey Sports 32 28 110 -82 5
1. Liga Promotion Switzerland. 1. Liga Promotion Predictions
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