Predictions / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - Ost / SV Horn vs Fach-Donaufeld

SV Horn vs Fach-Donaufeld Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

SV Horn SV Horn
May 22, 2026 - 17:30
1.45
1.25
42% 26% 33%
Fach-Donaufeld Fach-Donaufeld
Betting Primary Pick (highest +EV)
BTTS No — Value
EV 59.3% Model 72.4%
Secondary (balanced value): Under 2.5 (EV 55.0%) — 73.1% Model
Lower EV than primary, but with higher model probability (more “stable” when shown).
Why The model prices Under 2.5 goals about 27.6 percentage points above closing implied — the main structural read vs. the line.

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Fach-Donaufeld (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 27.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
SV Horn (1X2) 41.8 44.9 -3.1
Draw (1X2) 25.7 26.1 -0.5
Fach-Donaufeld (1X2) 32.6 29.0 +3.5
Over 2.5 goals 26.9 54.5 -27.6
Under 2.5 goals 73.1 45.5 +27.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 73.1% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 45.5%. The difference — about 27.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
SV Horn (1X2) 1.98 1.98 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.4 3.4 0.0
Fach-Donaufeld (1X2) 3.06 3.06 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.69 1.69 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.02 2.02 0.0
Over / Under 2.5 Best value (+EV)
Over 2.5 26.9% · Under 2.5 73.1%
EV Over -54.27% · EV Under 54.97%
Value lean: Under 2.5
1X2 Poor value
SV Horn · Model 41.8%
implied 44.9%
EV: -14.7%
Best line EV (1X2) -8.1%
Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun
Most Likely
0-0
Probability 16.5%
Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.
Betting decision (model vs. market EV)
Value opportunity — At least one market shows estimated +EV at current best decimal odds (threshold: 2.0%).
Decision strength: 6.5 / 10
  • Primary line identified (+1.0)
  • Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)
  • Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
  • Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)
O/U 2.5: EV Over -54.27% · EV Under 54.97% (8 book pairs)
BTTS: EV Yes -55.29% · EV No 59.28%
Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.
OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.1.0(EV + Market Structure + Risk Adjustment) Check Odds at 1xBet

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Regionalliga - Ost
  • Fixture: SV Horn vs Fach-Donaufeld
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-22 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): SV Horn 1.45 — Fach-Donaufeld 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 72.4% · Implied: 42.6% · Probability edge: +29.8 pts · Est. EV: +59.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 27.6% · No 72.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (16.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Best Bet + Reason

The engine’s headline primary is: BTTS No.

If 1X2 looks tight, the engine may still find clearer structure in totals or BTTS — that is intentional.

Edges shrink quickly if prices move; always re-check the number on your book.

FAQ

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

Risk Factors

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

  • Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
  • Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 22, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Regionalliga - Ost Regionalliga - Ost — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gloggnitz 29 17 8 4 59
2 Krems / Rehberg 29 16 7 6 55
3 Leobendorf 29 17 3 9 54
4 Parndorf 29 15 8 6 53
5 Traiskirchen 29 14 8 7 50
6 Oberwart 29 15 4 10 49
7 SV Horn 30 13 9 8 48
8 Donau 29 12 8 9 44
9 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 29 11 10 8 43
10 Fach-Donaufeld 29 11 8 10 41
11 Wiener Viktoria 29 11 5 13 38
12 Wiener SC 29 10 7 12 37
13 Union Mauer 30 10 7 13 37
14 Favoritner AC 29 10 3 16 33
15 Neusiedl 29 7 5 17 26
16 Retz 30 2 8 20 14
17 TWL Elektra 29 2 2 25 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Traiskirchen 29 67 40 +27 50
2 Oberwart 29 63 38 +25 49
3 Gloggnitz 29 55 34 +21 59
4 Krems / Rehberg 29 53 25 +28 55
5 SV Horn 30 51 32 +19 48
6 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 29 50 34 +16 43
7 Donau 29 47 45 +2 44
8 Parndorf 29 46 31 +15 53
9 Fach-Donaufeld 29 45 39 +6 41
10 Leobendorf 29 43 29 +14 54
11 Wiener Viktoria 29 41 47 -6 38
12 Wiener SC 29 41 51 -10 37
13 Neusiedl 29 40 61 -21 26
14 Favoritner AC 29 38 50 -12 33
15 Union Mauer 30 30 43 -13 37
16 Retz 30 21 62 -41 14
17 TWL Elektra 29 18 88 -70 8
Regionalliga - Ost Austria. Regionalliga - Ost Predictions
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