Wiener SC vs Retz Sharp money alert: Retz ↓ -30.0% market move detected

Wiener SC

Feb 20, 2026 - 18:30

1.49

1.23

43% 25% 31%

Retz

Forecast Assessment

Use caution

Favourite: Wiener SC Balanced match
Model probability: 43.2%
Market probability: 60.1%
Market agreement: Weak
Validation: Warning

Summary:

Both lean Wiener SC, but the market prices them higher (60.1% vs model 43.2%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move: Retz ↓ -30.0% 6.0 → 4.2
Move type: 🔥 Strong steam
Steam Score: 91A+
Strong multi-book steam
Market breadth: 8/11
Phase: Sharp repricing
Ref book: Bet365
CLV validation: Waiting for Close

Largest move today

Odds path — Retz

🐢 Slow drift over 27h 57m

Open 8.00

Low / High 4.20

Current 4.20

Market Narrative

8/11 books synchronized on Retz (30.0% steam, score 91) — high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.

Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through.

Market Audit

Market agreement: Weak
Validation: Warning
Largest gap: Wiener SC -16.8 pp
Breadth: 8/11
Current market activity: Retz odds shortened ↓ -30.0%.

The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Wiener SC than the current fair estimate.

However, recent buying interest has been on Retz, with odds shortening by 30.0%.

Buying interest on Retz — odds shortened by 30.0%.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Outcome	Fair	Market	Edge
Wiener SC	43.23%	60.06%	-16.8 pp
Draw	25.46%	21.36%	+4.1 pp
Retz	31.32%	18.58%	+12.7 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Final betting verdict

No default bet at standard thresholds — use leans for context only.

No value on 1X2 (Wiener SC vs. current odds)
Model lean (not a default bet): Over 2.5
Model lean (not a default bet): BTTS Yes
Significant line move — see market context below.

Low conviction (4/10) — prefer smaller stakes or skip.

1X2 ❌ No bet on 1X2 — no value vs. current odds on this market

Match: 43.2% Wiener SC; Market consensus (3-way) 60.1%; Consensus-line EV -22.0%

No standard primary for this match: the best +EV line in the 25–40% model band is not shown as a main pick (settings). Use the alternative or secondary lines below.

No positive EV on tracked lines at current best odds.

⭐ Both Teams To Score Lean

Yes 56.4% · No 43.6%

Value lean: BTTS Yes

Over / Under 2.5 Pass

Over 2.5 51.1% · Under 2.5 48.9%

Value lean: Over 2.5

1X2 Poor value

Wiener SC · Model probability 43.2%

Market consensus (3-way) 60.1%

Consensus-line EV: -22.0%

Best available bookmaker line: -0.9% EV

Some outlier bookmaker prices may still show small theoretical value vs. the consensus line above.

Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun

Most Likely

1-1

Probability 12.1%

Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.

Betting decision (model vs. market EV)

Lean only (below +EV threshold) — The model leans a side in at least one market, but no tracked line reaches the engine’s minimum EV threshold for a default stake suggestion.

Decision strength: 4.0 / 10

Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)

O/U 2.5: insufficient book odds for EV
BTTS: insufficient book odds for EV

Should you bet on this match? No default bet: the model does not show +EV at the configured threshold on available lines.

Retz market context before kickoff

🔥 Strong steam on Retz

Odds move: 6.00 → 4.20 (↓ -30.0%)
Market breadth: 8/11
Steam score: 91 (A+)
Current status: Market repriced — no remaining value detected on tracked lines at consensus.

Steam detected. Current price appears fully adjusted.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Model validation warning

Forecast Generated
Market Compared
Validation Passed
Closing Recorded
CLV Evaluated

Entry: 1.49
Closing: Pending
CLV: Pending

OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.

Check Odds at 1xBet

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Regionalliga - Ost — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Parndorf	32	18	8	6	62
2	Gloggnitz	32	18	8	6	62
3	Krems / Rehberg	32	17	7	8	58
4	Leobendorf	32	18	3	11	57
5	Oberwart	32	17	5	10	56
6	SV Horn	32	14	9	9	51
7	Traiskirchen	32	14	8	10	50
8	Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf	32	13	10	9	49
9	Fach-Donaufeld	32	13	8	11	47
10	Wiener SC	32	13	7	12	46
11	Wiener Viktoria	32	13	6	13	45
12	Donau	32	12	8	12	44
13	Favoritner AC	32	12	3	17	39
14	Union Mauer	32	10	7	15	37
15	Neusiedl	32	8	5	19	29
16	Retz	32	4	8	20	20
17	TWL Elektra	32	2	2	28	8

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Oberwart	32	73	42	+31	56
2	Traiskirchen	32	70	52	+18	50
3	Krems / Rehberg	32	61	33	+28	58
4	Parndorf	32	58	34	+24	62
5	Gloggnitz	32	58	45	+13	62
6	SV Horn	32	57	35	+22	51
7	Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf	32	55	37	+18	49
8	Wiener SC	32	54	52	+2	46
9	Fach-Donaufeld	32	51	44	+7	47
10	Wiener Viktoria	32	50	51	-1	45
11	Donau	32	50	57	-7	44
12	Leobendorf	32	48	34	+14	57
13	Neusiedl	32	46	72	-26	29
14	Favoritner AC	32	44	52	-8	39
15	Union Mauer	32	32	47	-15	37
16	Retz	32	25	64	-39	20
17	TWL Elektra	32	21	102	-81	8