Predictions / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - Ost / Favoritner AC vs Union Mauer

Favoritner AC vs Union Mauer Sharp money alert: Union Mauer ↑ +51.2% market move detected

Favoritner AC Favoritner AC
Feb 20, 2026 - 18:10
1.49
1.23
43% 25% 31%
Union Mauer Union Mauer

Forecast Assessment

Use caution

Favourite
Favoritner AC Balanced match
Model probability
43.2%
Market probability
31.0%
Market agreement
Weak
Validation
Warning

Summary:

The model and market both lean Favoritner AC, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Union Mauer remain plausible — this is a relatively open match.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move
Union Mauer ↑ +51.2% 1.62 → 2.45
Move type
📈 Steam
Steam Score
80A+
Strong multi-book steam
Market breadth
7/11
Phase
Sharp repricing
Ref book
Bet365
CLV validation
Waiting for Close

Largest move today

Odds path — Union Mauer

🐢 Slow drift over 27h 57m

Open 2.77
Low / High 1.57
Current 2.45

Market Narrative

Multi-book steam on Union Mauer (51.2%, 7/11) — aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.

Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through.

Market Audit

Market agreement
Weak
Validation
Warning
Largest gap
Favoritner AC +12.2 pp
Breadth
7/11
Current market activity
Union Mauer odds lengthened ↑ +51.2%.

The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Favoritner AC.

However, Union Mauer has seen drift — odds lengthened by 51.2%, suggesting weakening support.

Drift away from Union Mauer — odds lengthened by 51.2% (weakening support).

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Outcome Fair Market Edge
Favoritner AC 43.23% 31.01% +12.2 pp
Draw 25.46% 27.85% -2.4 pp
Union Mauer 31.32% 41.13% -9.8 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Final betting verdict

Different markets price efficiency differently — 1X2 can be a pass while goals markets still show edge.

  • Possible value on 1X2: Favoritner AC (+1.7% EV at best odds)
  • Model lean (not a default bet): Over 2.5
  • Model lean (not a default bet): BTTS Yes
  • Significant line move — see market context below.
Low conviction (4/10) — prefer smaller stakes or skip.
Premium betting site 1xbet: New users can use the promo code 1x_3342271 to receive $100 cash.
1X2 Favoritner AC (small edge, EV +1.7%)
Match: 43.2% Favoritner AC; Market consensus (3-way) 31.0%; Consensus-line EV +1.7%
Small positive edge on a tracked line (~1.7%), below the 2.0% default betting threshold — no Primary pick.
⭐ 1X2 Lean
Favoritner AC · Model probability 43.2%
Market consensus (3-way) 31.0%
Consensus-line EV: +1.7%
Both Teams To Score Lean
Yes 56.4% · No 43.6%
Value lean: BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5 Pass
Over 2.5 51.1% · Under 2.5 48.9%
Value lean: Over 2.5
Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun
Most Likely
1-1
Probability 12.1%
Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.
Betting decision (model vs. market EV)
Lean only (below +EV threshold) — The model leans a side in at least one market, but no tracked line reaches the engine’s minimum EV threshold for a default stake suggestion.
Decision strength: 4.0 / 10
  • Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
O/U 2.5: insufficient book odds for EV
BTTS: insufficient book odds for EV
Should you bet on this match? No default bet: the model does not show +EV at the configured threshold on available lines.

Union Mauer market context before kickoff

📈 Steam on Union Mauer

Odds move
1.62 → 2.45 (↑ +51.2%)
Market breadth
7/11
Steam score
80 (A+)
Current status
Market repriced — no remaining value detected on tracked lines at consensus.

Steam detected. Current price appears fully adjusted.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Model validation warning

  1. Forecast Generated
  2. Market Compared
  3. Validation Passed
  4. Closing Recorded
  5. CLV Evaluated
Entry
2.87
Closing
Pending
CLV
Pending
OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.
Check Odds at 1xBet
How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

Get Premium Predictions for Favoritner AC & Union Mauer!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Regionalliga - Ost Regionalliga - Ost — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Parndorf 32 18 8 6 62
2 Gloggnitz 32 18 8 6 62
3 Krems / Rehberg 32 17 7 8 58
4 Leobendorf 32 18 3 11 57
5 Oberwart 32 17 5 10 56
6 SV Horn 32 14 9 9 51
7 Traiskirchen 32 14 8 10 50
8 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 32 13 10 9 49
9 Fach-Donaufeld 32 13 8 11 47
10 Wiener SC 32 13 7 12 46
11 Wiener Viktoria 32 13 6 13 45
12 Donau 32 12 8 12 44
13 Favoritner AC 32 12 3 17 39
14 Union Mauer 32 10 7 15 37
15 Neusiedl 32 8 5 19 29
16 Retz 32 4 8 20 20
17 TWL Elektra 32 2 2 28 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Oberwart 32 73 42 +31 56
2 Traiskirchen 32 70 52 +18 50
3 Krems / Rehberg 32 61 33 +28 58
4 Parndorf 32 58 34 +24 62
5 Gloggnitz 32 58 45 +13 62
6 SV Horn 32 57 35 +22 51
7 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 32 55 37 +18 49
8 Wiener SC 32 54 52 +2 46
9 Fach-Donaufeld 32 51 44 +7 47
10 Wiener Viktoria 32 50 51 -1 45
11 Donau 32 50 57 -7 44
12 Leobendorf 32 48 34 +14 57
13 Neusiedl 32 46 72 -26 29
14 Favoritner AC 32 44 52 -8 39
15 Union Mauer 32 32 47 -15 37
16 Retz 32 25 64 -39 20
17 TWL Elektra 32 21 102 -81 8
Popular Leagues