Predictions / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - Ost / Parndorf vs Oberwart

Parndorf vs Oberwart Sharp money alert: Parndorf ↑ +8.7% market move detected

Parndorf Parndorf
Feb 20, 2026 - 18:00
1.49
1.23
43% 25% 31%
Oberwart Oberwart

Forecast Assessment

Reliable forecast

Favourite
Parndorf Balanced match
Model probability
43.2%
Market probability
34.7%
Market agreement
Moderate
Validation
Pass

Summary:

The model and market both lean Parndorf, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Oberwart remain plausible — this is a relatively open match.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move
Parndorf ↑ +8.7% 2.3 → 2.5
Move type
📈 Steam
Steam Score
60A
Strong sharp signal
Market breadth
9/11
Phase
Sharp repricing
Ref book
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair
CLV validation
Waiting for Close

Largest move today

Odds path — Parndorf

🐢 Slow drift over 27h 58m

Open 2.78
Low / High 2.30
Current 2.50

Market Narrative

Multi-book steam on Parndorf (8.7%, 9/11) — aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.

Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation.

Market Audit

Market agreement
Moderate
Validation
Pass
Largest gap
Parndorf +8.5 pp
Breadth
9/11
Current market activity
Parndorf odds lengthened ↑ +8.7%.

Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Parndorf.

Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Parndorf.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Outcome Fair Market Edge
Parndorf 43.23% 34.74% +8.5 pp
Draw 25.46% 27.03% -1.6 pp
Oberwart 31.32% 38.23% -6.9 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Final betting verdict

No default bet at standard thresholds — use leans for context only.

  • No value on 1X2 (Parndorf vs. current odds)
  • Model lean (not a default bet): Over 2.5
  • Model lean (not a default bet): BTTS Yes
  • Significant line move — see market context below.
Low conviction (4/10) — prefer smaller stakes or skip.
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1X2 ❌ No bet on 1X2 — no value vs. current odds on this market
Match: 43.2% Parndorf; Market consensus (3-way) 34.7%; Consensus-line EV -2.0%
No positive EV on tracked lines at current best odds.
⭐ Both Teams To Score Lean
Yes 56.4% · No 43.6%
Value lean: BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5 Pass
Over 2.5 51.1% · Under 2.5 48.9%
Value lean: Over 2.5
1X2 Poor value
Parndorf · Model probability 43.2%
Market consensus (3-way) 34.7%
Consensus-line EV: -2.0%
Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun
Most Likely
1-1
Probability 12.1%
Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.
Betting decision (model vs. market EV)
Lean only (below +EV threshold) — The model leans a side in at least one market, but no tracked line reaches the engine’s minimum EV threshold for a default stake suggestion.
Decision strength: 4.0 / 10
  • Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
O/U 2.5: insufficient book odds for EV
BTTS: insufficient book odds for EV
Should you bet on this match? No default bet: the model does not show +EV at the configured threshold on available lines.

Parndorf market context before kickoff

📈 Steam on Parndorf

Odds move
2.30 → 2.50 (↑ +8.7%)
Market breadth
9/11
Steam score
60 (A)
Current status
Market repriced — no remaining value detected on tracked lines at consensus.

Steam detected. Current price appears fully adjusted.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Market monitoring

  1. Forecast Generated
  2. Market Compared
  3. Validation Passed
  4. Closing Recorded
  5. CLV Evaluated
Entry
2.58
Closing
Pending
CLV
Pending
OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.
Check Odds at 1xBet
How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Regionalliga - Ost Regionalliga - Ost — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Parndorf 32 18 8 6 62
2 Gloggnitz 32 18 8 6 62
3 Krems / Rehberg 32 17 7 8 58
4 Leobendorf 32 18 3 11 57
5 Oberwart 32 17 5 10 56
6 SV Horn 32 14 9 9 51
7 Traiskirchen 32 14 8 10 50
8 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 32 13 10 9 49
9 Fach-Donaufeld 32 13 8 11 47
10 Wiener SC 32 13 7 12 46
11 Wiener Viktoria 32 13 6 13 45
12 Donau 32 12 8 12 44
13 Favoritner AC 32 12 3 17 39
14 Union Mauer 32 10 7 15 37
15 Neusiedl 32 8 5 19 29
16 Retz 32 4 8 20 20
17 TWL Elektra 32 2 2 28 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Oberwart 32 73 42 +31 56
2 Traiskirchen 32 70 52 +18 50
3 Krems / Rehberg 32 61 33 +28 58
4 Parndorf 32 58 34 +24 62
5 Gloggnitz 32 58 45 +13 62
6 SV Horn 32 57 35 +22 51
7 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 32 55 37 +18 49
8 Wiener SC 32 54 52 +2 46
9 Fach-Donaufeld 32 51 44 +7 47
10 Wiener Viktoria 32 50 51 -1 45
11 Donau 32 50 57 -7 44
12 Leobendorf 32 48 34 +14 57
13 Neusiedl 32 46 72 -26 29
14 Favoritner AC 32 44 52 -8 39
15 Union Mauer 32 32 47 -15 37
16 Retz 32 25 64 -39 20
17 TWL Elektra 32 21 102 -81 8
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