Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB III - Northwest / Tatabánya vs Balatonfüredi

Tatabánya vs Balatonfüredi Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tatabánya Tatabánya
May 24, 2026 - 15:00
1.45
1.25
42% 26% 33%
Balatonfüredi Balatonfüredi

Final betting verdict

Different markets price efficiency differently — 1X2 can be a pass while goals markets still show edge.

  • No value on 1X2 (Tatabánya vs. current odds)
  • Possible value: Under 2.5 (+23.6% EV at best odds)
  • Model lean (not a default bet): BTTS No
  • Steam repriced this match — late money may have eaten remaining edge on the steamed side.
Low conviction (4.5/10) — prefer smaller stakes or skip.
1X2 ❌ No bet on 1X2 — no value vs. current odds on this market
Match: 41.8% Tatabánya; implied 76.3%; EV -20.9%
No standard primary for this match: the best +EV line in the 25–40% model band is not shown as a main pick (settings). Use the alternative or secondary lines below.
Steam vs. value
Market momentum is strong, but current odds may already be over-adjusted. Steam detected — model value on this line may be priced out.
This match appears on the market-movement board for aggressive line repricing — not because 1X2 is currently a positive-EV bet.
📈 Steam · Balatonfüredi ↓ -13.6% · 5/9 · 63 A
Market steam Moderate
Current EV Negative
Closing line pressure High
Value remaining Limited
No Primary pick for default sizing on this strip (1X2 can still read “no bet”), but at least one other market clears the +EV threshold — check the Over/Under and BTTS cards below.
Why The model prices Balatonfüredi (1X2) about 22.9 percentage points above closing implied — the main structural read vs. the line.

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Balatonfüredi (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Balatonfüredi (1X2) by about 22.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Tatabánya (1X2) 41.8 76.3 -34.5
Draw (1X2) 25.7 14.1 +11.6
Balatonfüredi (1X2) 32.6 9.6 +22.9
Over 2.5 goals 58.8 68.8 -10.0
Under 2.5 goals 41.2 31.2 +10.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Balatonfüredi (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 9.6%. The difference — about 22.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Tatabánya (1X2) 1.2 1.2 0.0
Draw (1X2) 6.5 6.5 0.0
Balatonfüredi (1X2) 9.5 9.5 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.36 1.36 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 3.0 3.0 0.0
⭐ Over / Under 2.5 Model edge (+EV)
Over 2.5 58.8% · Under 2.5 41.2%
EV Over -18.9% · EV Under +23.6%
Value lean: Under 2.5
1X2 Lean
Tatabánya · Model 41.8%
implied 76.3%
Main consensus market · EV: -20.9%
Best available bookmaker line: +20.1% EV
Some outlier bookmaker prices may still show small theoretical value vs. the consensus line above.
Both Teams To Score Poor value
Yes 44.6% · No 55.4%
EV Yes -6.3% · EV No -4.2%
Value lean: BTTS No
Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun
Most Likely
2-0
Probability 10.0%
Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.
Betting decision (model vs. market EV)
Selective value — At least one tracked market may clear +EV at best odds, but conviction is limited (4.5/10) — size down.
Decision strength: 4.5 / 10
  • Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
  • Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)
O/U 2.5: EV Over -18.9% · EV Under +23.6% (5 book pairs)
BTTS: EV Yes -6.3% · EV No -4.2%
Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.
OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.1.0(EV + Market Structure + Risk Adjustment) Check Odds at 1xBet

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: NB III - Northwest
  • Fixture: Tatabánya vs Balatonfüredi
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-24 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Tatabánya 1.45 — Balatonfüredi 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 41.2% · Over 2.5 58.8%); BTTS No (Yes 44.6% · No 55.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 44.6% · No 55.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-0 (10.0%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Best Bet + Reason

No bankroll-sized bet is implied here.

The cards may still show value leans (e.g. a preferred Under or a BTTS side) where prices are inefficient or incomplete — that is not the same as a positive-EV ticket at the configured threshold.

Re-check after material price moves; edges appear and disappear with liquidity.

FAQ

What do the grey “lean” labels mean then?

They summarise where the model tilts (e.g. Under 2.5 or BTTS No) without claiming a positive economic edge. Use them as context; size to zero unless you deliberately accept discretionary risk.

When would a headline +EV return?

When odds move enough that implied probabilities drop relative to the same model snapshot, or when more book prices arrive so EV can be computed reliably — then re-run the pipeline.

Is the most likely correct score still relevant?

As context only: it is still a low absolute probability tail outcome (often in the single digits, sometimes low teens). It does not override the “no headline +EV” stance — treat score bets as fun-sized if you play them at all.

Why is there no “best bet” on this page?

The headline engine uses a minimum +EV threshold (e.g. 2%) for a default pick. A line can still show tiny +EV that fails that bar — we still call it no default bet so readers do not over-size thin edges.

Risk Factors

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

  • Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
  • Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 25, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this
  • When there is no Primary line, compare the +EV rows in the market cards below (not only 1X2).
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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NB III - Northwest NB III - Northwest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gyirmot SE 29 26 1 2 79
2 Tatabánya 29 19 2 8 59
3 Dorogi FC 29 17 4 8 55
4 Puskás II 29 17 3 9 54
5 Komárom 29 15 6 8 51
6 Haladás VSE 29 15 5 9 50
7 MTE 1904 29 13 5 11 44
8 Veszprém 29 11 8 10 41
9 Budaörs 29 11 5 13 38
10 Bicskei 29 10 6 13 36
11 Gyori ETO II 30 10 4 16 34
12 Újpest II 29 9 7 13 34
13 SC Sopron 30 9 7 14 34
14 Pápai Perutz 29 6 3 20 21
15 Balatonfüredi 29 4 6 19 18
16 Zsámbéki SK 29 3 4 22 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Gyirmot SE 29 103 20 +83 79
2 Tatabánya 29 61 37 +24 59
3 Komárom 29 59 42 +17 51
4 Puskás II 29 58 34 +24 54
5 Budaörs 29 52 51 +1 38
6 Bicskei 29 50 50 0 36
7 Gyori ETO II 30 47 63 -16 34
8 Dorogi FC 29 46 34 +12 55
9 Újpest II 29 45 48 -3 34
10 SC Sopron 30 43 58 -15 34
11 Haladás VSE 29 42 31 +11 50
12 MTE 1904 29 42 32 +10 44
13 Pápai Perutz 29 42 82 -40 21
14 Veszprém 29 34 36 -2 41
15 Zsámbéki SK 29 34 101 -67 13
16 Balatonfüredi 29 20 59 -39 18
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