Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 4 / Stal Kraśnik vs Świdniczanka Świdnik

Stal Kraśnik vs Świdniczanka Świdnik Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Stal Kraśnik Stal Kraśnik
May 23, 2026 - 15:00
1.45
1.25
42% 26% 33%
Świdniczanka Świdnik Świdniczanka Świdnik
1X2 ❌ No bet — no value vs. current odds
Match: 41.8% Stal Kraśnik; implied 65.7%; EV -23.8%
No standard primary for this match: the best +EV line in the 25–40% model band is not shown as a main pick (settings). Use the alternative or secondary lines below.
No Primary pick for default sizing on this strip (1X2 can still read “no bet”), but at least one other market clears the +EV threshold — check the Over/Under and BTTS cards below.
Why The model prices Świdniczanka Świdnik (1X2) about 17.7 percentage points above closing implied — the main structural read vs. the line.

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Świdniczanka Świdnik (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Świdniczanka Świdnik (1X2) by about 17.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Stal Kraśnik (1X2) 41.8 65.7 -23.9
Draw (1X2) 25.7 19.5 +6.2
Świdniczanka Świdnik (1X2) 32.6 14.8 +17.7
Over 2.5 goals 61.0 65.3 -4.3
Under 2.5 goals 39.0 34.6 +4.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Świdniczanka Świdnik (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 14.8%. The difference — about 17.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Stal Kraśnik (1X2) 1.35 1.35 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.55 4.55 0.0
Świdniczanka Świdnik (1X2) 5.97 5.97 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.4 1.4 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.64 2.64 0.0
⭐ Both Teams To Score Best value (+EV)
Yes 44.1% · No 55.9%
EV Yes -19.3% · EV No 18.51%
Value lean: BTTS No
1X2 Lean
Stal Kraśnik · Model 41.8%
implied 65.7%
Main consensus market · EV: -23.8%
Best available bookmaker line: +4.2% EV
Some outlier bookmaker prices may still show small theoretical value vs. the consensus line above.
Over / Under 2.5 Lean
Over 2.5 61.0% · Under 2.5 39.0%
EV Over 0.04% · EV Under 2.96%
Value lean: Under 2.5
Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun
Most Likely
1-1
Probability 10.4%
Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.
Betting decision (model vs. market EV)
Value opportunity — At least one market shows estimated +EV at current best decimal odds (threshold: 2.0%).
Decision strength: 4.5 / 10
  • Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
  • Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)
O/U 2.5: EV Over 0.04% · EV Under 2.96% (4 book pairs)
BTTS: EV Yes -19.3% · EV No 18.51%
Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.
OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.1.0(EV + Market Structure + Risk Adjustment) Check Odds at 1xBet

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: III Liga - Group 4
  • Fixture: Stal Kraśnik vs Świdniczanka Świdnik
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Stal Kraśnik 1.45 — Świdniczanka Świdnik 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 39.0% · Over 2.5 61.0%); BTTS No (Yes 44.1% · No 55.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 44.1% · No 55.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.4%)

The decision block shows no default bet: no tracked line clears the headline minimum +EV threshold at the best prices we have (a leg can still show small +EV below that bar). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Best Bet + Reason

Skip unless odds move — the engine sees no line clearing the +EV gate.

Treat this page as a read-only diagnostic: totals/BTTS structure can be informative even when the honest answer is to wait.

Re-check after material price moves; edges appear and disappear with liquidity.

FAQ

Should I still read the 1X2 card?

Yes — it shows whether any winner price clears value. Here it often explains why there is no headline: probabilities can be clustered while prices already embed that uncertainty.

Why is there no “best bet” on this page?

The headline engine uses a minimum +EV threshold (e.g. 2%) for a default pick. A line can still show tiny +EV that fails that bar — we still call it no default bet so readers do not over-size thin edges.

Is the most likely correct score still relevant?

As context only: it is still a low absolute probability tail outcome (often in the single digits, sometimes low teens). It does not override the “no headline +EV” stance — treat score bets as fun-sized if you play them at all.

What do the grey “lean” labels mean then?

They summarise where the model tilts (e.g. Under 2.5 or BTTS No) without claiming a positive economic edge. Use them as context; size to zero unless you deliberately accept discretionary risk.

Risk Factors

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

  • Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
  • Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 23, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this
  • When there is no Primary line, compare the +EV rows in the market cards below (not only 1X2).
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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III Liga - Group 4 III Liga - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Avia Świdnik 32 21 8 3 71
2 KSZO 1929 32 20 8 4 68
3 Chełmianka Chełm 32 19 9 4 66
4 Korona Kielce II 33 17 4 12 55
5 Star Starachowice 32 15 9 8 54
6 Czarni Połaniec 33 16 5 12 53
7 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 32 14 9 9 51
8 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 33 15 6 12 51
9 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 32 13 9 10 48
10 Wisłoka Dębica 32 12 12 8 48
11 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 32 11 10 11 43
12 Wisła Kraków II 32 13 4 15 43
13 Naprzód 32 11 6 16 38
14 Sokół Kolb. 33 10 4 19 34
15 Cracovia Kraków II 32 8 6 18 30
16 Stal Kraśnik 32 7 7 18 28
17 Świdniczanka Świdnik 32 5 5 23 20
18 Sparta KW 32 3 1 28 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Avia Świdnik 32 77 33 +44 71
2 KSZO 1929 32 62 29 +33 68
3 Korona Kielce II 33 62 58 +4 55
4 Chełmianka Chełm 32 61 30 +31 66
5 Wisła Kraków II 32 61 55 +6 43
6 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 32 57 41 +16 48
7 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 32 57 44 +13 51
8 Czarni Połaniec 33 57 46 +11 53
9 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 32 53 43 +10 43
10 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 33 51 47 +4 51
11 Star Starachowice 32 49 39 +10 54
12 Naprzód 32 45 51 -6 38
13 Stal Kraśnik 32 37 52 -15 28
14 Cracovia Kraków II 32 37 64 -27 30
15 Wisłoka Dębica 32 36 29 +7 48
16 Świdniczanka Świdnik 32 36 77 -41 20
17 Sokół Kolb. 33 35 54 -19 34
18 Sparta KW 32 26 107 -81 10
III Liga - Group 4 Poland. III Liga - Group 4 Predictions
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