Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 3 / Starowice Dolne vs Carina Gubin

Starowice Dolne vs Carina Gubin Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Starowice Dolne Starowice Dolne
May 23, 2026 - 16:00
1.45
1.25
42% 26% 33%
Carina Gubin Carina Gubin
Betting Primary Pick (highest +EV)
BTTS No — Value
EV 7.0% Model 44.6%
Not a dominant outcome (model probability is below 50% on this leg).
Why The model prices Starowice Dolne (1X2) about 19.6 percentage points above closing implied — the main structural read vs. the line.

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Starowice Dolne (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Starowice Dolne (1X2) by about 19.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Starowice Dolne (1X2) 41.8 22.1 +19.6
Draw (1X2) 25.7 23.0 +2.7
Carina Gubin (1X2) 32.6 54.8 -22.3
Over 2.5 goals 62.0 62.9 -0.9
Under 2.5 goals 38.0 37.1 +0.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Starowice Dolne (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.1%. The difference — about 19.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Starowice Dolne (1X2) 4.06 4.06 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.91 3.91 0.0
Carina Gubin (1X2) 1.64 1.64 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.45 1.45 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.46 2.46 0.0
1X2 Lean
Starowice Dolne · Model 41.8%
implied 22.1%
Main consensus market · EV: 1.2%
Over / Under 2.5 Poor value
Over 2.5 62.0% · Under 2.5 38.0%
EV Over -5.14% · EV Under -6.52%
Value lean: Over 2.5
Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun
Most Likely
1-1
Probability 9.9%
Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.
Betting decision (model vs. market EV)
Value opportunity — At least one market shows estimated +EV at current best decimal odds (threshold: 2.0%).
Decision strength: 5.0 / 10
  • Primary line identified (+1.0)
  • Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
O/U 2.5: EV Over -5.14% · EV Under -6.52% (6 book pairs)
BTTS: EV Yes -15.24% · EV No 7.04%
Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.
OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.1.0(EV + Market Structure + Risk Adjustment) Check Odds at 1xBet

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: III Liga - Group 3
  • Fixture: Starowice Dolne vs Carina Gubin
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Starowice Dolne 1.45 — Carina Gubin 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 44.6% · Implied: 38.8% · Probability edge: +5.8 pts · Est. EV: +7.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 55.4% · No 44.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.9%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Best Bet + Reason

Primary angle highlighted on the page: BTTS No.

If 1X2 looks tight, the engine may still find clearer structure in totals or BTTS — that is intentional.

Only one modest +EV edge is highlighted here; size cautiously and re-check if odds move.

FAQ

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

Risk Factors

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

  • Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
  • Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 23, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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III Liga - Group 3 III Liga - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lechia Zielona Góra 32 19 10 3 67
2 Górnik Polkowice 33 20 7 6 67
3 SKRA Częstochowa 33 17 8 8 59
4 Zagłębie Lubin II 33 17 6 10 57
5 Sparta Katowice 32 16 8 8 56
6 Górnik Zabrze II 33 15 6 12 51
7 Goczałkowice Zdrój 33 14 9 10 51
8 Kluczbork 32 14 7 11 49
9 Warta Gorzów 32 13 7 12 46
10 Ślęza Wrocław 32 13 7 12 46
11 Carina Gubin 32 11 11 10 44
12 Miedź Legnica II 33 12 7 14 43
13 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 32 11 9 12 42
14 Słowianin 32 11 9 12 42
15 Polonia Nysa 32 8 10 14 34
16 Starowice Dolne 32 7 6 19 27
17 Pawłowice Śląskie 32 5 4 23 19
18 Stal Jasień 32 2 1 29 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Zagłębie Lubin II 33 75 58 +17 57
2 Górnik Zabrze II 33 73 42 +31 51
3 Lechia Zielona Góra 32 71 16 +55 67
4 SKRA Częstochowa 33 67 54 +13 59
5 Górnik Polkowice 33 63 40 +23 67
6 Kluczbork 32 61 42 +19 49
7 Miedź Legnica II 33 61 57 +4 43
8 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 32 55 52 +3 42
9 Warta Gorzów 32 51 47 +4 46
10 Sparta Katowice 32 47 32 +15 56
11 Carina Gubin 32 47 49 -2 44
12 Polonia Nysa 32 47 54 -7 34
13 Goczałkowice Zdrój 33 46 44 +2 51
14 Ślęza Wrocław 32 45 49 -4 46
15 Słowianin 32 43 48 -5 42
16 Starowice Dolne 32 32 77 -45 27
17 Pawłowice Śląskie 32 26 71 -45 19
18 Stal Jasień 32 21 99 -78 7
III Liga - Group 3 Poland. III Liga - Group 3 Predictions
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