Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 3 / Warta Gorzów vs Zagłębie Lubin II

Warta Gorzów vs Zagłębie Lubin II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Warta Gorzów Warta Gorzów
May 15, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 72%
Zagłębie Lubin II Zagłębie Lubin II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Warta Gorzów Zagłębie Lubin II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 1-2 ✔ Correct

Next AI Predictions Available Today

View Today's Football Predictions See Upcoming III Liga - Group 3 Matches Track Warta Gorzów Next Match Prediction Track Zagłębie Lubin II Next Match Prediction

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: III Liga - Group 3
  • Fixture: Warta Gorzów vs Zagłębie Lubin II
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Warta Gorzów 1.45 — Zagłębie Lubin II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 69.7% · Implied: 61.5% · Probability edge: +8.2 pts · Est. EV: +6.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 69.4% · No 30.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (8.8%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Best Bet + Reason

Primary angle highlighted on the page: Over 2.5 goals.

If 1X2 looks tight, the engine may still find clearer structure in totals or BTTS — that is intentional.

Only one modest +EV edge is highlighted here; size cautiously and re-check if odds move.

FAQ

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

Risk Factors

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

  • Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
  • Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 23, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 3 III Liga - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lechia Zielona Góra 32 19 10 3 67
2 Górnik Polkowice 33 20 7 6 67
3 SKRA Częstochowa 33 17 8 8 59
4 Zagłębie Lubin II 33 17 6 10 57
5 Sparta Katowice 32 16 8 8 56
6 Górnik Zabrze II 33 15 6 12 51
7 Goczałkowice Zdrój 33 14 9 10 51
8 Kluczbork 32 14 7 11 49
9 Warta Gorzów 32 13 7 12 46
10 Ślęza Wrocław 32 13 7 12 46
11 Carina Gubin 32 11 11 10 44
12 Miedź Legnica II 33 12 7 14 43
13 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 32 11 9 12 42
14 Słowianin 32 11 9 12 42
15 Polonia Nysa 32 8 10 14 34
16 Starowice Dolne 32 7 6 19 27
17 Pawłowice Śląskie 32 5 4 23 19
18 Stal Jasień 32 2 1 29 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Zagłębie Lubin II 33 75 58 +17 57
2 Górnik Zabrze II 33 73 42 +31 51
3 Lechia Zielona Góra 32 71 16 +55 67
4 SKRA Częstochowa 33 67 54 +13 59
5 Górnik Polkowice 33 63 40 +23 67
6 Kluczbork 32 61 42 +19 49
7 Miedź Legnica II 33 61 57 +4 43
8 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 32 55 52 +3 42
9 Warta Gorzów 32 51 47 +4 46
10 Sparta Katowice 32 47 32 +15 56
11 Carina Gubin 32 47 49 -2 44
12 Polonia Nysa 32 47 54 -7 34
13 Goczałkowice Zdrój 33 46 44 +2 51
14 Ślęza Wrocław 32 45 49 -4 46
15 Słowianin 32 43 48 -5 42
16 Starowice Dolne 32 32 77 -45 27
17 Pawłowice Śląskie 32 26 71 -45 19
18 Stal Jasień 32 21 99 -78 7
III Liga - Group 3 Poland. III Liga - Group 3 Predictions
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