Swit vs Wisła Płock II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Swit

May 23, 2026 - 16:00

1.45

1.25

42% 26% 33%

Wisła Płock II

Best +EV (tracked markets)

BTTS Yes — Value

EV 4.7% Model 68.4%

Strongest +EV among tracked markets here; stricter Primary rules (e.g. minimum EV) were not met.

Over / Under 2.5 Poor value

Over 2.5 62.0% · Under 2.5 38.0%

EV Over -1.42% · EV Under -9.56%

Value lean: Over 2.5

1X2 Poor value

Swit · Model 41.8%

implied 41.4%

Main consensus market · EV: -9.8%

Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun

Most Likely

1-1

Probability 10.4%

Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.

Betting decision (model vs. market EV)

Execution: No Primary / sized alternative at standard thresholds — other markets may still show +EV in the cards below.

Market insight: A small model–price gap may exist on marginal or high-variance legs — not a default bankroll bet; size down if you experiment. (Technical: at least one tracked line clears the +EV gate at ≥2.0% on best available odds — this does not imply a default bet.)

Decision strength: 4.0 / 10

Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)

O/U 2.5: EV Over -1.42% · EV Under -9.56% (5 book pairs)
BTTS: EV Yes 4.65% · EV No -17.84%

Should you bet on this match? Discretionary read only: +EV may appear on thin or longshot legs; compare with your limits.

OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.1.0(EV + Market Structure + Risk Adjustment) Check Odds at 1xBet

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: III Liga - Group 1
Fixture: Swit vs Wisła Płock II
Kickoff: 2026-05-23 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Swit 1.45 — Wisła Płock II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 68.4% · Implied: 62.4% · Probability edge: +6.0 pts · Est. EV: +4.7%
BTTS (model): Yes 68.4% · No 31.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Best Bet + Reason

Best current value angle on the board — same leg as the “Best +EV” hero when Primary rules are not met: BTTS Yes.

Model probability is compared to implied probability from odds to highlight a probability edge; EV uses the same model probability with the best decimal price tracked.

No pick is a guarantee; variance is especially large in scoreline markets.

FAQ

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

Risk Factors

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 23, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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III Liga - Group 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Legia Warszawa II	33	26	3	4	81
2	Warta Sieradz	33	20	8	5	68
3	Łomża	32	20	5	7	65
4	Wigry Suwałki	33	19	5	9	62
5	Troszyn	32	17	6	9	57
6	Widzew II	33	16	3	14	51
7	Wisła Płock II	32	14	8	10	50
8	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	32	13	7	12	46
9	Jagiellonia II	32	13	6	13	45
10	Ząbkovia Ząbki	32	13	4	15	43
11	Swit	32	12	5	15	41
12	Mławianka Mława	32	10	7	15	37
13	Olimpia Elbląg	32	10	7	15	37
14	Bełchatów	32	9	7	16	34
15	Wikielec	32	9	6	17	33
16	Broń Radom	32	8	9	15	33
17	Wasilków	32	7	3	22	24
18	Znicz Biała Piska	32	3	3	26	12

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Legia Warszawa II	33	79	29	+50	81
2	Troszyn	32	74	43	+31	57
3	Łomża	32	73	30	+43	65
4	Ząbkovia Ząbki	32	69	60	+9	43
5	Widzew II	33	68	63	+5	51
6	Warta Sieradz	33	63	34	+29	68
7	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	32	63	52	+11	46
8	Wigry Suwałki	33	61	41	+20	62
9	Mławianka Mława	32	51	56	-5	37
10	Wisła Płock II	32	49	48	+1	50
11	Bełchatów	32	48	70	-22	34
12	Swit	32	47	60	-13	41
13	Jagiellonia II	32	43	43	0	45
14	Olimpia Elbląg	32	43	58	-15	37
15	Wasilków	32	38	74	-36	24
16	Wikielec	32	36	51	-15	33
17	Broń Radom	32	36	55	-19	33
18	Znicz Biała Piska	32	24	98	-74	12