Predictions / Football / England. National League - North / Spennymoor Town vs Kidderminster Harriers

Spennymoor Town vs Kidderminster Harriers Strong steam move across 7/12 sportsbooks on Spennymoor Town

Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town
Feb 07, 2026 - 15:00
1.49
1.23
43% 25% 31%
Kidderminster Harriers Kidderminster Harriers

Forecast Assessment

Use caution

Favourite
Spennymoor Town Balanced match
Model probability
43.2%
Market probability
24.5%
Market agreement
Weak
Validation
Warning

Summary:

The model and market both lean Spennymoor Town, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Kidderminster Harriers remain plausible — this is a relatively open match.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move
Spennymoor Town ↑ +8.8% 3.4 → 3.7
Move type
📈 Steam
Steam Score
53B
Moderate sharp signal
Market breadth
7/12
Phase
Sharp repricing
Ref book
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair
CLV validation
Waiting for Close

Largest move today

Odds path — Spennymoor Town

🐢 Slow drift over 59h 55m

Open 3.88
Low / High 2.90
Current 3.70

Market Narrative

Multi-book steam on Spennymoor Town (8.8%, 7/12) — aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.

A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation.

Market Audit

Market agreement
Weak
Validation
Warning
Largest gap
Spennymoor Town +18.8 pp
Breadth
7/12
Current market activity
Spennymoor Town odds lengthened ↑ +8.8%.

The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Spennymoor Town.

Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Spennymoor Town.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Outcome Fair Market Edge
Spennymoor Town 43.23% 24.47% +18.8 pp
Draw 25.46% 27.86% -2.4 pp
Kidderminster Harriers 31.32% 47.66% -16.3 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Final betting verdict

Different markets price efficiency differently — 1X2 can be a pass while goals markets still show edge.

  • Possible value on 1X2: Spennymoor Town (+5.5% EV at best odds)
  • Model lean (not a default bet): Over 2.5
  • Model lean (not a default bet): BTTS Yes
  • Significant line move — see market context below.
Moderate conviction (5/10) — one selective line, not a multi-market parlay.
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1X2 ✔ Spennymoor Town (Value)
Match: 43.2% Spennymoor Town; Market consensus (3-way) 24.5%; Consensus-line EV +5.5%
Primary: Spennymoor Town — Value · EV +5.5% · Model 43.2%
Not a dominant outcome (model probability is below 50% on this leg).
⭐ 1X2 Model edge (+EV)
Spennymoor Town · Model probability 43.2%
Market consensus (3-way) 24.5%
Consensus-line EV: +5.5%
Both Teams To Score Lean
Yes 56.4% · No 43.6%
Value lean: BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5 Pass
Over 2.5 51.1% · Under 2.5 48.9%
Value lean: Over 2.5
Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun
Most Likely
1-1
Probability 12.1%
Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.
Betting decision (model vs. market EV)
Selective value — At least one tracked market may clear +EV at best odds, but conviction is limited (5.0/10) — size down.
Decision strength: 5.0 / 10
  • Primary line identified (+1.0)
  • Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
O/U 2.5: insufficient book odds for EV
BTTS: insufficient book odds for EV
Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

Spennymoor Town market context before kickoff

📈 Steam on Spennymoor Town

Odds move
3.40 → 3.70 (↑ +8.8%)
Market breadth
7/12
Steam score
53 (B)
Current status
Tracked markets may still show +EV at best odds.

Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Model validation warning

  1. Forecast Generated
  2. Market Compared
  3. Validation Passed
  4. Closing Recorded
  5. CLV Evaluated
Entry
3.7
Closing
Pending
CLV
Pending
OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.
Check Odds at 1xBet
How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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National League - North National League - North — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 AFC Fylde 46 32 4 10 100
2 South Shields 46 28 11 7 95
3 Kidderminster Harriers 46 25 12 9 87
4 Macclesfield 46 24 7 15 79
5 Buxton 46 22 7 17 73
6 Scarborough Athletic 46 19 16 11 73
7 Chester 46 20 13 13 73
8 Merthyr Town 46 22 4 20 70
9 Darlington 1883 46 20 9 17 69
10 Spennymoor Town 46 19 11 16 68
11 AFC Telford United 46 17 14 15 65
12 Marine 46 18 8 20 62
13 Radcliffe 46 18 6 22 60
14 Southport 46 16 12 18 60
15 Chorley 46 15 12 19 57
16 Worksop Town 46 16 9 21 57
17 Oxford City 46 15 11 20 56
18 Bedford Town 46 13 14 19 53
19 King's Lynn Town 46 12 16 18 52
20 Hereford 46 14 10 22 52
21 Curzon Ashton 46 13 13 20 52
22 Alfreton Town 46 12 14 20 50
23 Peterborough Sports 46 10 9 27 39
24 Leamington 46 7 8 31 29
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 AFC Fylde 46 112 51 +61 100
2 South Shields 46 99 43 +56 95
3 Merthyr Town 46 95 86 +9 70
4 AFC Telford United 46 85 65 +20 65
5 Buxton 46 83 61 +22 73
6 Macclesfield 46 81 68 +13 79
7 Darlington 1883 46 78 68 +10 69
8 Radcliffe 46 76 83 -7 60
9 Kidderminster Harriers 46 74 51 +23 87
10 Curzon Ashton 46 67 88 -21 52
11 Chester 46 66 64 +2 73
12 Chorley 46 66 65 +1 57
13 Worksop Town 46 66 74 -8 57
14 Bedford Town 46 66 77 -11 53
15 Southport 46 64 71 -7 60
16 Hereford 46 64 79 -15 52
17 Oxford City 46 62 67 -5 56
18 Spennymoor Town 46 62 69 -7 68
19 Marine 46 62 72 -10 62
20 Scarborough Athletic 46 61 52 +9 73
21 King's Lynn Town 46 56 64 -8 52
22 Peterborough Sports 46 51 96 -45 39
23 Alfreton Town 46 49 82 -33 50
24 Leamington 46 41 90 -49 29
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