Alfreton Town vs Chorley Sharp money alert: Alfreton Town ↓ -19.1% market move detected

Alfreton Town

Jan 27, 2026 - 19:45

1.49

1.23

43% 25% 31%

Chorley

Forecast Assessment

Use caution

Favourite: Alfreton Town Balanced match
Model probability: 43.2%
Market probability: 32.7%
Market agreement: Weak
Validation: Warning

Summary:

The model and market both lean Alfreton Town, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Chorley remain plausible — this is a relatively open match.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move: Alfreton Town ↓ -19.1% 3.4 → 2.75
Move type: 🔥 Strong steam
Steam Score: 94A+
Strong multi-book steam
Market breadth: 11/12
Phase: Sharp repricing
Ref book: Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair
CLV validation: Waiting for Close

Largest move today

Odds path — Alfreton Town

🐢 Slow drift over 51h 14m

Open 3.80

Low / High 2.63

Current 2.75

Market Narrative

11/12 books synchronized on Alfreton Town (19.1% steam, score 94) — high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.

Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through.

Market Audit

Market agreement: Weak
Validation: Warning
Largest gap: Alfreton Town +10.5 pp
Breadth: 11/12
Current market activity: Alfreton Town odds shortened ↓ -19.1%.

The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Alfreton Town.

Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Alfreton Town.

The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Outcome	Fair	Market	Edge
Alfreton Town	43.23%	32.73%	+10.5 pp
Draw	25.46%	27.27%	-1.8 pp
Chorley	31.32%	40.0%	-8.7 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Final betting verdict

Different markets price efficiency differently — 1X2 can be a pass while goals markets still show edge.

Possible value on 1X2: Alfreton Town (+0.9% EV at best odds)
Model lean (not a default bet): Over 2.5
Model lean (not a default bet): BTTS Yes
Significant line move — see market context below.

Low conviction (4/10) — prefer smaller stakes or skip.

1X2 Alfreton Town (small edge, EV +0.9%)

Match: 43.2% Alfreton Town; Market consensus (3-way) 32.7%; Consensus-line EV +0.9%

Small positive edge on a tracked line (~0.9%), below the 2.0% default betting threshold — no Primary pick.

⭐ 1X2 Lean

Alfreton Town · Model probability 43.2%

Market consensus (3-way) 32.7%

Consensus-line EV: +0.9%

Both Teams To Score Lean

Yes 56.4% · No 43.6%

Value lean: BTTS Yes

Over / Under 2.5 Pass

Over 2.5 51.1% · Under 2.5 48.9%

Value lean: Over 2.5

Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun

Most Likely

1-1

Probability 12.1%

Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.

Betting decision (model vs. market EV)

Lean only (below +EV threshold) — The model leans a side in at least one market, but no tracked line reaches the engine’s minimum EV threshold for a default stake suggestion.

Decision strength: 4.0 / 10

Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)

O/U 2.5: insufficient book odds for EV
BTTS: insufficient book odds for EV

Should you bet on this match? No default bet: the model does not show +EV at the configured threshold on available lines.

Alfreton Town market context before kickoff

🔥 Strong steam on Alfreton Town

Odds move: 3.40 → 2.75 (↓ -19.1%)
Market breadth: 11/12
Steam score: 94 (A+)
Current status: Market repriced — no remaining value detected on tracked lines at consensus.

Steam detected. Current price appears fully adjusted.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Model validation warning

Forecast Generated
Market Compared
Validation Passed
Closing Recorded
CLV Evaluated

Entry: 2.75
Closing: Pending
CLV: Pending

OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.

Check Odds at 1xBet

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Alfreton Town & Chorley!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Predictions

National League - North — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	AFC Fylde	46	32	4	10	100
2	South Shields	46	28	11	7	95
3	Kidderminster Harriers	46	25	12	9	87
4	Macclesfield	46	24	7	15	79
5	Buxton	46	22	7	17	73
6	Scarborough Athletic	46	19	16	11	73
7	Chester	46	20	13	13	73
8	Merthyr Town	46	22	4	20	70
9	Darlington 1883	46	20	9	17	69
10	Spennymoor Town	46	19	11	16	68
11	AFC Telford United	46	17	14	15	65
12	Marine	46	18	8	20	62
13	Radcliffe	46	18	6	22	60
14	Southport	46	16	12	18	60
15	Chorley	46	15	12	19	57
16	Worksop Town	46	16	9	21	57
17	Oxford City	46	15	11	20	56
18	Bedford Town	46	13	14	19	53
19	King's Lynn Town	46	12	16	18	52
20	Hereford	46	14	10	22	52
21	Curzon Ashton	46	13	13	20	52
22	Alfreton Town	46	12	14	20	50
23	Peterborough Sports	46	10	9	27	39
24	Leamington	46	7	8	31	29

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	AFC Fylde	46	112	51	+61	100
2	South Shields	46	99	43	+56	95
3	Merthyr Town	46	95	86	+9	70
4	AFC Telford United	46	85	65	+20	65
5	Buxton	46	83	61	+22	73
6	Macclesfield	46	81	68	+13	79
7	Darlington 1883	46	78	68	+10	69
8	Radcliffe	46	76	83	-7	60
9	Kidderminster Harriers	46	74	51	+23	87
10	Curzon Ashton	46	67	88	-21	52
11	Chester	46	66	64	+2	73
12	Chorley	46	66	65	+1	57
13	Worksop Town	46	66	74	-8	57
14	Bedford Town	46	66	77	-11	53
15	Southport	46	64	71	-7	60
16	Hereford	46	64	79	-15	52
17	Oxford City	46	62	67	-5	56
18	Spennymoor Town	46	62	69	-7	68
19	Marine	46	62	72	-10	62
20	Scarborough Athletic	46	61	52	+9	73
21	King's Lynn Town	46	56	64	-8	52
22	Peterborough Sports	46	51	96	-45	39
23	Alfreton Town	46	49	82	-33	50
24	Leamington	46	41	90	-49	29