Leamington vs Buxton Strong steam move across 5/13 sportsbooks on Leamington

Leamington

Jan 20, 2026 - 19:45 ABD

28% 48% 24%

Buxton

Forecast Assessment

Use caution

Favourite: Draw Slight favourite
Model probability: 47.6%
Market probability: 25.1%
Market agreement: Weak
Validation: Warning

Summary:

Model and market lean the same side on Draw, but pricing gaps warrant caution.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move: Leamington ↓ -12.8% 3.9 → 3.4
Move type: ⚡ Sharp-led move
Steam Score: 51B
Moderate sharp signal
Market breadth: 5/13
Phase: Sharp repricing
Ref book: Bet365
CLV validation: Waiting for Close

Largest move today

Odds path — Leamington

🐢 Slow drift over 47h 24m

Open 3.99

Low / High 3.25

Current 3.40

Market Narrative

Bet365 led repricing on Leamington (12.8%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through.

Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited.

Market Audit

Market agreement: Weak
Validation: Warning
Largest gap: Buxton -26.0 pp
Breadth: 5/13
Current market activity: Leamington odds shortened ↓ -12.8%.

The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.

Outcome	Fair	Market	Edge
Leamington	28.2%	24.62%	+3.6 pp
Draw	47.57%	25.13%	+22.4 pp
Buxton	24.23%	50.26%	-26.0 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Model Validation Required

The model and market differ materially (26.0 percentage points). Additional validation is recommended before interpreting this comparison.

Extreme model-market divergence detected.

1X2 ✔ draw (Value)

Match: 47.6% draw; Market consensus (3-way) 25.1%; Consensus-line EV +6.6%

Primary: Draw — Value · EV +6.6% · Model 47.6%

Not a dominant outcome (model probability is below 50% on this leg).

⭐ 1X2 Model edge (+EV)

draw · Model probability 47.6%

Market consensus (3-way) 25.1%

Consensus-line EV: +6.6%

Over / Under 2.5 Lean

Over 2.5 9.2% · Under 2.5 90.8%

Value lean: Under 2.5

Both Teams To Score Lean

Yes 18.1% · No 81.9%

Value lean: BTTS No

Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun

Most Likely

0-0

Probability 34.6%

Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.

Betting decision (model vs. market EV)

Selective value — At least one tracked market may clear +EV at best odds, but conviction is limited (4.5/10) — size down.

Decision strength: 4.5 / 10

Primary line identified (+1.0)
Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
Draw probability above 30% (−0.5)

O/U 2.5: insufficient book odds for EV
BTTS: insufficient book odds for EV

Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

Leamington market context before kickoff

⚡ Sharp-led move on Leamington

Odds move: 3.90 → 3.40 (↓ -12.8%)
Market breadth: 5/13
Steam score: 51 (B)
Current status: Tracked markets may still show +EV at best odds.

Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Model validation warning

Forecast Generated
Market Compared
Validation Passed
Closing Recorded
CLV Evaluated

Entry: 1.8
Closing: Pending
CLV: Pending

OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.

Check Odds at 1xBet

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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National League - North — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	AFC Fylde	46	32	4	10	100
2	South Shields	46	28	11	7	95
3	Kidderminster Harriers	46	25	12	9	87
4	Macclesfield	46	24	7	15	79
5	Buxton	46	22	7	17	73
6	Scarborough Athletic	46	19	16	11	73
7	Chester	46	20	13	13	73
8	Merthyr Town	46	22	4	20	70
9	Darlington 1883	46	20	9	17	69
10	Spennymoor Town	46	19	11	16	68
11	AFC Telford United	46	17	14	15	65
12	Marine	46	18	8	20	62
13	Radcliffe	46	18	6	22	60
14	Southport	46	16	12	18	60
15	Chorley	46	15	12	19	57
16	Worksop Town	46	16	9	21	57
17	Oxford City	46	15	11	20	56
18	Bedford Town	46	13	14	19	53
19	King's Lynn Town	46	12	16	18	52
20	Hereford	46	14	10	22	52
21	Curzon Ashton	46	13	13	20	52
22	Alfreton Town	46	12	14	20	50
23	Peterborough Sports	46	10	9	27	39
24	Leamington	46	7	8	31	29

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	AFC Fylde	46	112	51	+61	100
2	South Shields	46	99	43	+56	95
3	Merthyr Town	46	95	86	+9	70
4	AFC Telford United	46	85	65	+20	65
5	Buxton	46	83	61	+22	73
6	Macclesfield	46	81	68	+13	79
7	Darlington 1883	46	78	68	+10	69
8	Radcliffe	46	76	83	-7	60
9	Kidderminster Harriers	46	74	51	+23	87
10	Curzon Ashton	46	67	88	-21	52
11	Chester	46	66	64	+2	73
12	Chorley	46	66	65	+1	57
13	Worksop Town	46	66	74	-8	57
14	Bedford Town	46	66	77	-11	53
15	Southport	46	64	71	-7	60
16	Hereford	46	64	79	-15	52
17	Oxford City	46	62	67	-5	56
18	Spennymoor Town	46	62	69	-7	68
19	Marine	46	62	72	-10	62
20	Scarborough Athletic	46	61	52	+9	73
21	King's Lynn Town	46	56	64	-8	52
22	Peterborough Sports	46	51	96	-45	39
23	Alfreton Town	46	49	82	-33	50
24	Leamington	46	41	90	-49	29