Imst vs Kuchl Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Imst

Jun 13, 2026 - 15:00

1.31

1.17

38% 30% 31%

Kuchl

Forecast Assessment

Reliable forecast

Favourite: Imst Balanced match
Model probability: 38.1%
Market probability: 39.7%
Market agreement: Moderate
Validation: Pass

Summary:

The model and market both lean Imst, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Kuchl remain plausible — this is a relatively open match.

Market Audit

Market agreement: Moderate
Validation: Pass
Largest gap: Draw +6.4 pp
Breadth: 6/7
Current market activity: No meaningful directional movement yet.

Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Outcome	Fair	Market	Edge
Imst	38.15%	39.7%	-1.6 pp
Draw	30.39%	23.98%	+6.4 pp
Kuchl	31.46%	36.33%	-4.9 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Final betting verdict

Different markets price efficiency differently — 1X2 can be a pass while goals markets still show edge.

No value on 1X2 (Imst vs. current odds)
Possible value: Under 2.5 (+25%+ EV at best odds)
Possible value: BTTS No (+25%+ EV at best odds)
Significant line move — see market context below.

Moderate conviction (6/10) — one selective line, not a multi-market parlay.

Betting Primary Pick (highest +EV)

BTTS No — Value

EV +25%+ Model 48.0%

Not a dominant outcome (model probability is below 50% on this leg).

Secondary (balanced value): Under 2.5 (EV +25%+) — 54.9% Model

Lower EV than primary, but with higher model probability (more “stable” when shown).

Over / Under 2.5 Best value (+EV)

Over 2.5 45.1% · Under 2.5 54.9%

EV Over -36.9% · EV Under +25%+

Value lean: Under 2.5

1X2 Poor value

Imst · Model probability 38.2%

Market consensus (3-way) 39.7%

Consensus-line EV: -11.6%

Best available bookmaker line: -3.6% EV

Some outlier bookmaker prices may still show small theoretical value vs. the consensus line above.

Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun

Most Likely

1-1

Probability 12.8%

Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.

Betting decision (model vs. market EV)

Value opportunity — At least one market shows estimated +EV at current best decimal odds (threshold: 2.0%).

Total expected goals (xG sum) is in a borderline band — outcome variance is high. (ΣxG ≈ 2.48)

Decision strength: 6.0 / 10

Primary line identified (+1.0)
Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)
Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
Draw probability above 30% (−0.5)
Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)

O/U 2.5: EV Over -36.9% · EV Under +25%+ (5 book pairs)
BTTS: EV Yes -30.8% · EV No +25%+

Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

Imst market context before kickoff

⚠️ Volatile market on Imst

Odds move: 2.25 → 2.25 (+0.0%)
Market breadth: 6/7
Steam score: 26 (C)
Current status: 1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.

Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Market monitoring

Forecast Generated
Market Compared
Validation Passed
Closing Recorded
CLV Evaluated

Entry: 3.75
Closing: Pending
CLV: Pending

OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.

Check Odds at 1xBet

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Regionalliga - West
Fixture: Imst vs Kuchl
Kickoff: 2026-06-13 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.2% · Draw 30.4% · Away 31.4%
xG (showing): Imst 1.31 — Kuchl 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.48)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
Model: 48.0% · Implied: 31.9% · Probability edge: +16.1 pts · Est. EV: +41.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 52.0% · No 48.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.8%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Best Bet + Reason

The engine’s headline primary is: BTTS No.

If 1X2 looks tight, the engine may still find clearer structure in totals or BTTS — that is intentional.

No pick is a guarantee; variance is especially large in scoreline markets.

FAQ

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

Risk Factors

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

June 11, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Regionalliga - West — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Wacker Innsbruck	31	27	2	2	83
2	Kuchl	31	21	2	8	65
3	Seekirchen	31	19	4	8	61
4	Imst	31	18	7	6	61
5	Dornbirn	31	16	4	11	52
6	Bischofshofen	31	16	3	12	51
7	SVG Reichenau	31	14	3	14	45
8	Hohenems	31	11	11	9	44
9	Schwaz	32	13	5	14	44
10	Kitzbühel	31	13	4	14	43
11	Wals-Grünau	31	10	8	13	38
12	TSV St. Johann	31	9	5	17	32
13	Lustenau	31	8	7	16	31
14	Rheindorf Altach II	31	7	6	18	27
15	Kufstein	31	5	10	16	25
16	Pinzgau Saalfelden	31	6	6	19	24
17	Lauterach	31	5	5	21	20

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Wacker Innsbruck	31	83	18	+65	83
2	Seekirchen	31	82	47	+35	61
3	Imst	31	68	38	+30	61
4	Kuchl	31	61	40	+21	65
5	Dornbirn	31	61	44	+17	52
6	Bischofshofen	31	58	42	+16	51
7	Schwaz	32	57	56	+1	44
8	Hohenems	31	53	49	+4	44
9	Wals-Grünau	31	53	64	-11	38
10	Lustenau	31	46	77	-31	31
11	TSV St. Johann	31	44	55	-11	32
12	SVG Reichenau	31	43	52	-9	45
13	Kitzbühel	31	42	43	-1	43
14	Lauterach	31	40	78	-38	20
15	Rheindorf Altach II	31	35	70	-35	27
16	Kufstein	31	31	49	-18	25
17	Pinzgau Saalfelden	31	24	59	-35	24