Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Kalisz Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

May 23, 2026 - 15:00

1.45

1.25

42% 26% 33%

Kalisz

Betting Primary Pick (highest +EV)

BTTS No — Value

EV 20.2% Model 53.4%

Steam vs. value

📈 Steam · Kalisz ↓ -13.9% · 11/14 · 70 A

Market steam	Moderate
Current EV	Negative
Closing line pressure	High
Value remaining	Limited

Why The model prices Kalisz (1X2) about 3.4 percentage points above closing implied — the main structural read vs. the line.

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Kalisz (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Kalisz (1X2) by about 3.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (1X2)	41.8	45.6	-3.9
Draw (1X2)	25.7	25.2	+0.5
Kalisz (1X2)	32.6	29.2	+3.4
Over 2.5 goals	53.1	56.2	-3.1
Under 2.5 goals	46.9	43.8	+3.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Kalisz (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 29.2%. The difference — about 3.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (1X2)	2.01	2.01
Draw (1X2)	3.64	3.64
Kalisz (1X2)	3.14	3.14
Over 2.5 goals	1.67	1.67
Under 2.5 goals	2.14	2.14

Over / Under 2.5 Lean

Over 2.5 53.1% · Under 2.5 46.9%

EV Over -7.07% · EV Under 0.37%

Value lean: Under 2.5

1X2 Poor value

Zaglebie Sosnowiec · Model 41.8%

implied 45.6%

Main consensus market · EV: -11.6%

Best available bookmaker line: +-5.3% EV

Some outlier bookmaker prices may still show small theoretical value vs. the consensus line above.

Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun

Most Likely

1-1

Probability 11.9%

Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.

Betting decision (model vs. market EV)

Value opportunity — At least one market shows estimated +EV at current best decimal odds (threshold: 2.0%).

Decision strength: 6.0 / 10

Primary line identified (+1.0)
Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)
Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)

O/U 2.5: EV Over -7.07% · EV Under 0.37% (11 book pairs)
BTTS: EV Yes -24.51% · EV No 20.15%

Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.1.0(EV + Market Structure + Risk Adjustment) Check Odds at 1xBet

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: II Liga - East
Fixture: Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Kalisz
Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1.45 — Kalisz 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
Model: 53.4% · Implied: 41.9% · Probability edge: +11.5 pts · Est. EV: +20.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 46.6% · No 53.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.9%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Best Bet + Reason

Primary angle highlighted on the page: BTTS No.

We separate probability edge (model minus implied, in points of probability) from estimated EV (economic edge at the best price shown on the page).

Only one modest +EV edge is highlighted here; size cautiously and re-check if odds move.

FAQ

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

Risk Factors

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 23, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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II Liga - East — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Unia Skierniewice	33	21	5	7	68
2	Warta Poznań	32	17	11	4	62
3	Olimpia Grudziądz	32	17	9	6	60
4	Podbeskidzie	32	16	6	10	54
5	Podhale Nowy Targ	32	13	13	6	52
6	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	32	12	13	7	49
7	Śląsk Wrocław II	32	14	7	11	49
8	Chojniczanka Chojnice	33	13	10	10	49
9	Hutnik Kraków	32	12	9	11	45
10	Świt Skolwin	32	12	8	12	44
11	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	32	11	10	11	43
12	Stal Stalowa Wola	32	8	16	8	40
13	Resovia Rzeszów	32	10	10	12	40
14	Sokół Kleczew	32	9	7	16	34
15	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	33	9	7	17	34
16	Kalisz	33	7	10	16	31
17	ŁKS Łódź II	32	5	10	17	25
18	Jastrzębie	32	0	7	25	6

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Unia Skierniewice	33	68	43	+25	68
2	Olimpia Grudziądz	32	66	40	+26	60
3	Podbeskidzie	32	61	41	+20	54
4	Śląsk Wrocław II	32	58	48	+10	49
5	Chojniczanka Chojnice	33	56	47	+9	49
6	Warta Poznań	32	53	33	+20	62
7	Stal Stalowa Wola	32	52	43	+9	40
8	Świt Skolwin	32	51	57	-6	44
9	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	32	48	38	+10	49
10	Hutnik Kraków	32	45	37	+8	45
11	Resovia Rzeszów	32	45	44	+1	40
12	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	32	44	46	-2	43
13	Podhale Nowy Targ	32	43	31	+12	52
14	Sokół Kleczew	32	43	56	-13	34
15	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	33	37	60	-23	34
16	Kalisz	33	35	54	-19	31
17	ŁKS Łódź II	32	31	58	-27	25
18	Jastrzębie	32	18	78	-60	6