Olimpia Grudziądz vs Hutnik Kraków Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Olimpia Grudziądz

May 23, 2026 - 15:00

1.45

1.25

42% 26% 33%

Hutnik Kraków

Betting Primary Pick (highest +EV)

BTTS Yes — Value

EV 12.3% Model 64.9%

Why The model prices BTTS Yes about 11.3 percentage points above closing implied — the main structural read vs. the line.

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Hutnik Kraków (1X2), Over 2.5 goals, BTTS Yes meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on BTTS Yes by about 11.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Olimpia Grudziądz (1X2)	41.8	49.9	-8.2
Draw (1X2)	25.7	26.4	-0.8
Hutnik Kraków (1X2)	32.6	23.6	+8.9
Over 2.5 goals	56.6	52.6	+4.0
Under 2.5 goals	43.4	47.4	-4.0
BTTS Yes	64.9	53.6	+11.3
BTTS No	35.1	46.4	-11.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 64.9% on BTTS Yes, while the closing snapshot implied about 53.6%. The difference — about 11.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Olimpia Grudziądz (1X2)	1.8	1.8
Draw (1X2)	3.4	3.4
Hutnik Kraków (1X2)	3.8	3.8
Over 2.5 goals	1.8	1.8
Under 2.5 goals	2.0	2.0
BTTS Yes	1.73	1.73
BTTS No	2.0	2.0

Over / Under 2.5 Lean

Over 2.5 56.6% · Under 2.5 43.4%

EV Over 1.88% · EV Under -13.2%

Value lean: Over 2.5

1X2 Poor value

Olimpia Grudziądz · Model 41.8%

implied 49.9%

Main consensus market · EV: -17.9%

Best available bookmaker line: +-1.3% EV

Some outlier bookmaker prices may still show small theoretical value vs. the consensus line above.

Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun

Most Likely

1-1

Probability 11.3%

Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.

Betting decision (model vs. market EV)

Value opportunity — At least one market shows estimated +EV at current best decimal odds (threshold: 2.0%).

Decision strength: 6.0 / 10

Primary line identified (+1.0)
Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)
Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)

O/U 2.5: EV Over 1.88% · EV Under -13.2% (8 book pairs)
BTTS: EV Yes 12.28% · EV No -26.29%

Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.1.0(EV + Market Structure + Risk Adjustment) Check Odds at 1xBet

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: II Liga - East
Fixture: Olimpia Grudziądz vs Hutnik Kraków
Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Olimpia Grudziądz 1.45 — Hutnik Kraków 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
Model: 64.9% · Implied: 55.0% · Probability edge: +9.9 pts · Est. EV: +12.3%
BTTS (model): Yes 64.9% · No 35.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.3%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Best Bet + Reason

Primary angle highlighted on the page: BTTS Yes.

We separate probability edge (model minus implied, in points of probability) from estimated EV (economic edge at the best price shown on the page).

No pick is a guarantee; variance is especially large in scoreline markets.

FAQ

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

Risk Factors

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 23, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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II Liga - East — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Unia Skierniewice	33	21	5	7	68
2	Warta Poznań	32	17	11	4	62
3	Olimpia Grudziądz	32	17	9	6	60
4	Podbeskidzie	32	16	6	10	54
5	Podhale Nowy Targ	32	13	13	6	52
6	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	32	12	13	7	49
7	Śląsk Wrocław II	32	14	7	11	49
8	Chojniczanka Chojnice	33	13	10	10	49
9	Hutnik Kraków	32	12	9	11	45
10	Świt Skolwin	32	12	8	12	44
11	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	32	11	10	11	43
12	Stal Stalowa Wola	32	8	16	8	40
13	Resovia Rzeszów	32	10	10	12	40
14	Sokół Kleczew	32	9	7	16	34
15	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	33	9	7	17	34
16	Kalisz	33	7	10	16	31
17	ŁKS Łódź II	32	5	10	17	25
18	Jastrzębie	32	0	7	25	6

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Unia Skierniewice	33	68	43	+25	68
2	Olimpia Grudziądz	32	66	40	+26	60
3	Podbeskidzie	32	61	41	+20	54
4	Śląsk Wrocław II	32	58	48	+10	49
5	Chojniczanka Chojnice	33	56	47	+9	49
6	Warta Poznań	32	53	33	+20	62
7	Stal Stalowa Wola	32	52	43	+9	40
8	Świt Skolwin	32	51	57	-6	44
9	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	32	48	38	+10	49
10	Hutnik Kraków	32	45	37	+8	45
11	Resovia Rzeszów	32	45	44	+1	40
12	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	32	44	46	-2	43
13	Podhale Nowy Targ	32	43	31	+12	52
14	Sokół Kleczew	32	43	56	-13	34
15	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	33	37	60	-23	34
16	Kalisz	33	35	54	-19	31
17	ŁKS Łódź II	32	31	58	-27	25
18	Jastrzębie	32	18	78	-60	6